The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
In this argument, the author predicts that the requirement of heating oil will increase in the next five years. This conclusion is based on the 90 days with below-normal temperatures last heating season, the prediction from climate forecasters and the trend of more houses being built for population growth. Nonetheless, the author fails to provide some evidence which is crucial for the validity of his argument.
The author mentions that the region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, which leads to the premise that the weather was cold. Apparently he holds that 90 days with colder weather can reflect the wholly decrease of temperature in that region. However, considering the rule that the general weather condition is based on the average temperature during a period, it might be possible that the rest days in the winter was distinctly above normal temperatures. In this case, weather in that region was warmer instead of colder. Therefore, additional statistics about the temperature of the rest days in winter are needed to reflect the general weather condition of the region.
Even if the weather was colder than normal, the prediction from climate forecasters can not reveal a tendency of climate change in the next few years. According to the author, climate forecasters are able to precisely foresee the weather condition in the future. Yet because of too much involved variables, trend of weather seems unpredictable. For instance, one can never foresee a volcanic eruption which might lead to a notable rising of temperature or an abrupt earthquake which can remarkably change the landform as well as the climate of a location. In this way, more evidence is required to ensure the liability of climate prediction.
Even though the trend of the weather getting cold is believable, the author should not come to the assertion that many new houses will promote the demand of heating oil. Obviously, he assumes that these new houses will still use oil as their major fuel for heating. but one can not deny the possibility that due to the reform of technology, new built house can use alternative energy resources such as solar power instead, which will no longer require the use of oil. Consequently, some important details of energy supply of new houses should be provided.
To sum up, the author tend to predict an increased demand of heating oil, yet he needs to give more evidence for improving the validity of this argument .
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flaws:
argument 1 and argument 2 are both talking about the weather.
Need to analyze the structure of the statement and argue accordingly:
condition 1:
Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years.
condition 2:
Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth.
conclusion:
Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years.
then here goes the argument:
argument 1:
The weather reports for the last season as well as for the past few years need to be scrutinized to infer that the decline in the temperatures for the last year were not a sudden aberration but a gradual fall. Furthermore, the argument can be strengthened if we can point out the details that corroborate for the predictions made by the climate forecasters about the future winter season.
argument 2:
Another aspect that needs to be substantiated is the recent populated growth. Annals reporting the numbers which depict the proliferation are required. It is also essential to ascertain that the new homes being built are in response to this increase in the population and not some future planning or for the existing population itself. The infrastructure of the new accommodations is also to be scanned. If they already have facilities for inbuilt heating systems then heating oil appears to be completely redundant.
argument 3:
The cardinal evidence required to evaluate the substance in the proposition made by the author, has to be pertaining to the heating methods currently practiced by the bulk population in the region. It is crucial to verify that people still use and prefer heating oil over the modern, easy to use heating appliances. The pecuniary comparisons for using heating oil and other alternatives is also to be considered, as it will aid in determining people’s choice.
Attribute Value Ideal
Score: 3.0 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 17 15
No. of Words: 405 350
No. of Characters: 2011 1500
No. of Different Words: 189 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.486 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.965 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.667 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 155 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 110 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 69 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 47 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 23.824 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 10.399 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.529 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.343 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.587 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.109 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5