The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The argument with the conclusion that heating oil demand will increase and recommend invesment in Consolidated Industries is rather weak. It is based on the premises that most homes in the northeastern United States traditionally used oil for heating mostly, that climate forecasters predict that there will continue to be colder winter for several more years, that many new homes are being built in the region. However, it is logically flawed in many aspects. There are many hidden assumptions, as stated in the following paragraph.
First, the assumption that the climate forecasters have the right prediction, that is, heating season that region will experience 90 days with below-normal temperatures in several years. If it is true, providing that inhabitants in this region still use oil forheating, then the demand could be rising for the higher consumption to maintain the same warmth. However, if the preicition fails, the conclusion have high possibility to be wrong, regarding the fact less heating fuels needed.
Moremore, the assumption that most of the residents still use oil as main heating fuels as they used to be. The tradional way may be most effective way, as in many examples that the old wisdom make us startled. If it is the case, as the best and healthy way to live or preventing cancer, the conclusion can be ture. However, there may be new ways to heat, coming up with development of technology, such as device to heat through electricity. If the people prefer to novice tools, then the conclusion may fail.
What's more, the assumption that the new built homes were designed to use traditional way to heat, i.e. oil-based heating utility. Maybe for the lowered price, the high efficiency, or the proclivity of the habitants, the choice of the designers are these old way to heat, However, with the progress of the science and technology, building with modern facility might emerge. As a consquence, the recommendation is overestimated and wrong.
In the end, the argument is weak. However, if the assumptions that the climate forecasters predict the right climate tendency, that most of the residents still use oil as main heating fuels, and the new built homes were designed to use oil to heat are stated, it will be great reinforced. Therefore it is hard to be accepted. As for me, I won't give Consolidated Industries a chance, i.e. investing it.
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Sentence: The tradional way may be most effective way, as in many examples that the old wisdom make us startled.
Description: The fragment wisdom make us is rare
Suggestion: Possible agreement error: Replace make with verb, past tense
Sentence: The argument with the conclusion that heating oil demand will increase and recommend invesment in Consolidated Industries is rather weak.
Error: invesment Suggestion: investment
Sentence: However, if the preicition fails, the conclusion have high possibility to be wrong, regarding the fact less heating fuels needed.
Error: preicition Suggestion: precision
Sentence: As a consquence, the recommendation is overestimated and wrong.
Error: consquence Suggestion: consequence
Attribute Value Ideal
Score: 3.0 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 1 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 3 2
No. of Sentences: 19 15
No. of Words: 396 350
No. of Characters: 1925 1500
No. of Different Words: 182 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.461 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.861 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.757 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 129 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 97 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 71 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 55 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 20.842 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 11.6 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.684 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.3 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.51 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.047 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5