The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of a manufacturing company."During the past year, workers at our newly opened factory reported 30 percent more on-the-job accidents than workers at nearby Panoply Industries. Panoply produces products

The vice president of Alta Manufacturing contends that on-the-job accidents can be reduced and productivity can be increased if the work shifts for the employees are shortened by one hour each. The arguer provides the example of the nearby Panoply Industries where the work shifts are an hour shorter than those of Alta Manufacturing and the frequency of on-the-job accidents are lesser than those of Alta Manufacturing by thirty percent. Additionally, the arguer provides the assumption that fatigue and sleep deprivation are a major cause of on-the-job accidents. This assumption leads the arguer to conclude that the employees will utilize the extra hour for getting an adequate amount of sleep, thereby reducing the chances of on-the-job accidents. There are a number of fallacies in the given argument that render the argument indefensible. The arguer has completely ignored the other factors that may be responsible for a higher rate of on-the-job accidents in Alta Manufacturing as compared to Panoply Industries. It is likely that the quality of the machines being used by Panoply Industries is much better than those of Alta Manufacturing. Moreover, it is likely that the workers of Panoply Industries are well trained for handling the machines and the workers at Alta Manufacturing are not skilled enough to handle the machinery. Additionally, the arguer does not shed light on the nature of the work being carried out in Alta Manufacturing and Panoply Industries. There is a possibility that the work at Panoply Industries is largely automated. Hence, the workers at Panoply Industries may not be directly handling the machines leading to a lower rate of on-the-job accidents. Therefore, the argument cannot be substantiated by the evidence provided by the arguer in the form of a comparison between the rates of on-the-job accidents of these two different companies.

Even if the working conditions of Alta Manufacturing and Panoply Industries are comparable, it cannot be said with conviction that sleep deprivation leads to on-the-job accidents. The arguer has not presented any evidence that establishes this link and hence, it is difficult for the reader to digest the fact that the main reasons for on-the-job accidents are fatigue and sleep deprivation. Moreover, the arguer has overlooked the fact that it is not necessary that the extra hour provided to the workers by shortening their work shifts will be utilized by them for sleeping. It is likely that the workers may use the additional hour for some other work and they would be as sleep deprived as they had been when they had longer work shifts. Hence, the whole purpose of shortening their work shifts would be defeated.
Lastly, relating productivity to on-the-job accidents is a highly unreasonable assumption. The productivity of a company is dependent on various factors and on-the-job accidents are the least likely to feature in the list of such factors. The productivity of a company can be increased by training its workers, maintaining a good supply of raw materials, adhering to deadlines, utilizing a good management department, improving the types of machinery used and the technology being utilized. Therefore, the given argument has been considerably weakened by the assumption that a lesser number of on-the-job accidents will increase productivity. The arguer could have substantiated his recommendation by providing evidence that proved the link between sleep deprivation, fatigue and on-the-job accidents. Moreover, there is a requirement of evidence that proves beyond doubt that the additional hour provided by shortening the work shifts will be utilized by the workers for sleeping. In the absence of such evidence, the recommendation made by the arguer is not justified.To begin with, it is assumed that the shorter work shifts for workers are the main reason why Panoply had 30% fewer accidents. This assumption has to be carefully examined as there might be other reasons why fewer accidents occurred in Panoply. For example, there could be fewer workers working in Panoply than in Quiot. Or the working conditions in Quiot are simply more dangerous leading to higher risks of accidents. If these are the main reasons leading to the gap in the number of accidents, the recommendation would not help close the gap as reducing the shift hours would neither change the size of workforce in Quiot nor make the working conditions safer.

这一段先提出一个假设 然后探索其他的可能挑战这个假设的可能性 最后总结在什么情况下这个结论不成立 It is also assumed that by shortening the shifts, the Quiot workers would necessarily get more sleep and not feel tired during the work. There are many factors that may affect the amount of sleep and the energy level of the workers. For example, some workers may prefer certain lifestyles that lead to sleep deprivation, such as staying up watching TV or hanging out with friends in the bars until mid-nights. Or some workers may have to take other part-time jobs to earn more money due to the low salary paid by Quiot, which will reduce the sleeping time and energy level of the workers. If sleep deprivation and fatigue are caused by factors other than long hours, then adopting the proposal would not achieve the desired objectives.

提出另一个假设 然后探索其他的可能挑战这个假设的可能性 最后总结在什么情况下这个结论不成立 The third assumption implicitly made is that helping the workers get enough sleep would necessarily reduce the number of accidents. Even if reducing work shift hours can get the workers to sleep more, the recommended measure may not reduce the number of accidents. There could be other factors that cause the accidents at Quiot. For example, the workers may not receive enough training about the safety protocols or the supervisors are not competent in enforcing the rules about safe operation. Or the machinery in Quiot needs upgrading to improve the safety and reduce risk of accidents. If the assumption that addressing sleep deprivation and fatigue would reduce accidents does not hold, the recommendation should not be accepted.

提出第三个假设 然后探索其他的可能挑战这个假设的可能性 最后总结在什么情况下这个结论不成立 Despite the good intention of this recommendation, we need more information about why Quiot had more accidents, what factors caused the accidents in Quiot and how shortening work shifts would affect the sleep amount and energy level of Quiot workers in order to examine the assumptions discussed above and evaluate the soundness of the argument.