2005-3-6
I'm Gwen Outen with the VOA Special English Development Report.
A United Nations report says the number of people in the world is
expected to reach six thousand five hundred million this July. By
the middle of the century, the population could reach more than nine
thousand million. That would be an increase of forty percent.
These numbers are fresh estimates for a report on world
population change from nineteen fifty to two thousand fifty. Hania
Zlotnik is director of the U.N. Population Division. She says the
world has added nearly five hundred million people in the last six
years.
But, in her words, "the good news is that new estimates show that
it will take a little longer" to add the next five hundred million.
Mizz Zlotnik says this will probably happen by two thousand
thirteen.
The U.N. report says most population growth by two thousand fifty
will take place in less developed countries. Their population is
expected to increase from five thousand million today to almost
eight thousand million. The population of more developed nations is
expected to stay about the same, at just over one thousand million.
The report says nine countries will be responsible for about half
the world population increase by twenty fifty. These include
Bangladesh, China, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia and
India. The others are Nigeria, Pakistan, Uganda and the United
States.
Twelve countries are expected to have populations at least three
times the size now. These include Afghanistan, Burkina Faso,
Burundi, Chad, Congo and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and East
Timor. The others are Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger and
Uganda.
The report says birth rates remain low in forty-four developed
countries.
Today, worldwide, there is an average of two-point-six children
per woman. This number is expected to fall to just over two children
per woman in two thousand fifty. But U.N. population experts note
that they cannot be sure which way birth rates will go in the
future.
The U.N. report also notes that AIDS has increased death rates
and slowed population growth in sixty countries. The area most
affected by the disease is Southern Africa.
There, how long people live has fallen from an average of
sixty-two years in nineteen ninety-five to forty-eight now.
Researchers believe life expectancy will fall to forty-three years
by two thousand fifteen, then begin a slow recovery.
This VOA Special English Development Report was written by Nancy
Steinbach. I'm Gwen Outen.