2004-8-29
This is Gwen Outen with the VOA Special English Development
Report.
New research shows that Earth will have more than nine thousand
million people by two thousand fifty. The world population is
currently estimated at six point four thousand million.
The research is from the Population Reference Bureau, a private
group based in Washington. It says most growth will take place in
developing countries in Africa and western Asia.
India is expected to pass China as the world's most populated
nation. By the middle of the century, the report says, India will
have over one and one-half thousand million citizens, an increase of
fifty percent.
China currently has one point three thousand million people. The
Population Reference Bureau says the population should increase
about ten percent by two thousand fifty.
Most industrial nations will see a drop in their populations. The
only big exception is expected to be the United States. The report
says the United States will remain the third biggest nation. The
population is close to three hundred million now. It is expected to
reach four hundred twenty million. The report says this will be
because of immigration and low death rates among babies.
Between now and two thousand fifty, Niger is expected to be the
fastest growing country. The biggest decrease is expected in
Bulgaria.
The study is based on information from governments and the United
Nations. Researcher Carl Haub wrote the report. He examined infant
death rates, life expectancy, birth rates and the age structure of
nations. The study also considered family planning use and, for the
first time, rates of AIDS.
Mister Haub says most growth will take place in countries with
young populations and traditionally large families. He points to
Nigeria and Japan as two nations that are moving in opposite
directions in terms of population.
In Nigeria, almost half the people are under the age of fifteen.
Few are over sixty-five. Nigerian women generally give birth about
six times during their lives. By comparison, the average Japanese
woman has one child. And today about twenty percent of Japanese are
over the age of sixty-five.
Mister Haub expects the Japanese population to decrease by twenty
percent. He estimates that the population of Nigeria will increase
by more than one hundred twenty percent by the middle of the
century.
This VOA Special English Development Report was written by Jill
Moss. This is Gwen Outen.