The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
The argument that by limiting the number of mopeds in the island will decrease the number of accidents is based on faulty assumptions. While the line of reasoning is somewhat persuasive, it committed Biased statistic fallacy and the questionable cause fallacy. Therefore is not logically sound.
First of all the argument commits biased statistic fallacy. The author states that the number of population increases the number of accidents in the island, which is presented without a proper justification. Moreover, there is no proper statistics that show that the increased number of population use mopeds as a mode of transportation, they may rent a car or use bus for that. It may be the fact that the number of accidents during the summers are due to other modes of transportation. The author should take other key factors into account and present the data with stronger evidences.
Second, the author fails to address that it maybe the fact that the companies are careless and they rent the mopeds without a proper scrutiny of the driver. The tourist maybe not be learned enough to drive the moped and is unaware of the traffic rules and regulation of the island, which may lead to accidents. The mopeds that are rented maybe old and not not serviced according to the proper government standards. The author fails to present proper statistics with causation factors during the time of summers.
Third, the author fails in presenting his point that the neighbouring island Seaville had decreased the number of accidents by using the same strategies last year. 50 percent annual reduction is a significant number that cannot occur just by reducing the number of mopeds, it may have included other factors such as good quality of mopeds and strictness of rules and regulations. The author should consider other areas as well who used this techniques to reduce the number of accidents.
In sum, the argument is neither sound nor convincing since the author fails to presents statistics with strong evidences and benefits. If it included proper implementation and strategies, the argument would have been strong and persuasive.
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Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 5 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 2 2
No. of Sentences: 17 15
No. of Words: 349 350
No. of Characters: 1746 1500
No. of Different Words: 164 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.322 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.003 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.678 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 138 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 88 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 66 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 47 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 20.529 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 7.609 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.647 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.35 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.576 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.078 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 262, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: Therefore,
...acy and the questionable cause fallacy. Therefore is not logically sound. First of all...
^^^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 353, Rule ID: ENGLISH_WORD_REPEAT_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a word
Suggestion: not
...he mopeds that are rented maybe old and not not serviced according to the proper govern...
^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 416, Rule ID: ENGLISH_WORD_REPEAT_BEGINNING_RULE
Message: Three successive sentences begin with the same word. Reword the sentence or use a thesaurus to find a synonym.
...ing to the proper government standards. The author fails to present proper statisti...
^^^
Line 7, column 437, Rule ID: THIS_NNS[1]
Message: Did you mean 'these'?
Suggestion: these
...d consider other areas as well who used this techniques to reduce the number of acci...
^^^^
Line 9, column 80, Rule ID: TO_NON_BASE[1]
Message: The verb after "to" should be in the base form: 'present'.
Suggestion: present
...or convincing since the author fails to presents statistics with strong evidences and be...
^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
first, if, may, moreover, second, so, therefore, third, well, while, such as, first of all
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 14.0 19.6327345309 71% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 9.0 12.9520958084 69% => OK
Conjunction : 13.0 11.1786427146 116% => OK
Relative clauses : 14.0 13.6137724551 103% => OK
Pronoun: 20.0 28.8173652695 69% => OK
Preposition: 44.0 55.5748502994 79% => OK
Nominalization: 14.0 16.3942115768 85% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 1789.0 2260.96107784 79% => OK
No of words: 349.0 441.139720559 79% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.12607449857 5.12650576532 100% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.32221490584 4.56307096286 95% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.77718580203 2.78398813304 100% => OK
Unique words: 171.0 204.123752495 84% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.489971346705 0.468620217663 105% => OK
syllable_count: 542.7 705.55239521 77% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 4.0 4.96107784431 81% => OK
Article: 11.0 8.76447105788 126% => OK
Subordination: 2.0 2.70958083832 74% => OK
Conjunction: 0.0 1.67365269461 0% => OK
Preposition: 1.0 4.22255489022 24% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 17.0 19.7664670659 86% => OK
Sentence length: 20.0 22.8473053892 88% => OK
Sentence length SD: 41.9021764058 57.8364921388 72% => OK
Chars per sentence: 105.235294118 119.503703932 88% => OK
Words per sentence: 20.5294117647 23.324526521 88% => OK
Discourse Markers: 5.29411764706 5.70786347227 93% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 5.0 5.25449101796 95% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 6.0 8.20758483034 73% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 9.0 6.88822355289 131% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 2.0 4.67664670659 43% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.167949500787 0.218282227539 77% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0583634193364 0.0743258471296 79% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0635220010388 0.0701772020484 91% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0955949659959 0.128457276422 74% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.056838906678 0.0628817314937 90% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 13.0 14.3799401198 90% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 51.18 48.3550499002 106% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.1 12.197005988 91% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 12.47 12.5979740519 99% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.43 8.32208582834 101% => OK
difficult_words: 84.0 98.500998004 85% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 8.5 12.3882235529 69% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.0 11.1389221557 90% => OK
text_standard: 13.0 11.9071856287 109% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 62.5 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.75 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.