The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"Jazz music is extremely popular in the city of Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Also, a number of well-known jazz musicians own homes in Monroe. Nevertheless, the nearest jazz club is over an hour away. Given the popularity of jazz in Monroe and a recent nationwide study indicating that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment, we predict that our new jazz music club in Monroe will be a tremendously profitable enterprise."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
The city of Monroe is wanting to open a jazz club and believe it will be tremendously profitable due to the closest jazz club being an hour away, jazz highest rated tv show, jazz fans spend about $1000 annually, and on the large attendance of last summer's festival. How is the city of Monroe able to be sure that profitability only depends on these factors?
Let's take a look at the number of attendants at last year's Jazz festival being a contributor to the tremendous profit a Jazz club may bring. How is the city sure that the number of people who went was in fact due to the jazz music? People could have been drawn due to the function being a free event and since it was free, there is no initial financial cost to the consumer. The festival could have been on a nice weather day and possibly on a weekend to where there would be an increase of attendance just because of the good weather.
Furthermore, the small business sees that the distance of the nearest Jazz club affects the likelihood of the profitability of the new Jazz music club. What if the distance to the nearest club is relative? People travel hours to see places and people travel an hour and a half just to eat at their favorite restaurant. This would not be a valid assumption to correlate the amount of money a company will make.
Lastly, the assumptions of the Jazz TV show rating and the amount of money a person spends on Jazz does not translate perfectly into the amount of money the club will make. How do the owners prove that that national average and the tve rating of the local city correlate to the club's profitability? The average rating and the average spending could be due to other causes. People who watch Jazz entertainment could also be buying Jazz music or Jazz memorabilia not necessarily on Jazz music clubs.
In conclusion, the city of Monroe should take into account all the assumptions that the small business correlates the success of the Jazz club too. Correlation doesn't equal causation. The facts of the attendance of the festival and the distance of the nearest Jazz club does not accurately depict the true success and profitability of the potential new Jazz club.
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Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 7 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 4 2
No. of Sentences: 17 15
No. of Words: 389 350
No. of Characters: 1757 1500
No. of Different Words: 172 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.441 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.517 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.504 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 103 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 73 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 51 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 32 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 22.882 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 9.517 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.412 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.36 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.574 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.108 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 20, Rule ID: PROGRESSIVE_VERBS[1]
Message: This verb is normally not used in the progressive form. Try a simple form instead.
The city of Monroe is wanting to open a jazz club and believe it wil...
^^^^^^^^^^
Line 1, column 50, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...of Monroe is wanting to open a jazz club and believe it will be tremendously prof...
^^
Line 1, column 248, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[2]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'summers'' or 'summer's'?
Suggestion: summers'; summer's
...ly, and on the large attendance of last summers festival. How is the city of Monroe abl...
^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 1, Rule ID: LETS_LET[1]
Message: Did you mean 'Let's'?
Suggestion: Let's
...ility only depends on these factors? Lets take a look at the number of attendants...
^^^^
Line 7, column 279, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[2]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'clubs'' or 'club's'?
Suggestion: clubs'; club's
...ting of the local city correlate to the clubs profitability? The average rating and t...
^^^^^
Line 9, column 161, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: doesn't
...ccess of the Jazz club too. Correlation doesnt equal causation. The facts of the atten...
^^^^^^
Line 9, column 270, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...nd the distance of the nearest Jazz club does not accurately depict the true succ...
^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, furthermore, if, lastly, look, may, so, in conclusion, in fact
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 18.0 19.6327345309 92% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 11.0 12.9520958084 85% => OK
Conjunction : 12.0 11.1786427146 107% => OK
Relative clauses : 9.0 13.6137724551 66% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 11.0 28.8173652695 38% => OK
Preposition: 50.0 55.5748502994 90% => OK
Nominalization: 11.0 16.3942115768 67% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 1794.0 2260.96107784 79% => OK
No of words: 388.0 441.139720559 88% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 4.62371134021 5.12650576532 90% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.43821085614 4.56307096286 97% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.55893442525 2.78398813304 92% => OK
Unique words: 173.0 204.123752495 85% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.44587628866 0.468620217663 95% => OK
syllable_count: 554.4 705.55239521 79% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.4 1.59920159681 88% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 1.0 4.96107784431 20% => OK
Article: 7.0 8.76447105788 80% => OK
Subordination: 0.0 2.70958083832 0% => More adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 1.0 4.22255489022 24% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 17.0 19.7664670659 86% => OK
Sentence length: 22.0 22.8473053892 96% => OK
Sentence length SD: 52.6833591581 57.8364921388 91% => OK
Chars per sentence: 105.529411765 119.503703932 88% => OK
Words per sentence: 22.8235294118 23.324526521 98% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.29411764706 5.70786347227 75% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 7.0 5.25449101796 133% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 12.0 8.20758483034 146% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 1.0 6.88822355289 15% => More negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 4.0 4.67664670659 86% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.288714301376 0.218282227539 132% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0977850941458 0.0743258471296 132% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0827381205108 0.0701772020484 118% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.182490326854 0.128457276422 142% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0578643736318 0.0628817314937 92% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 11.7 14.3799401198 81% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 66.07 48.3550499002 137% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 9.5 12.197005988 78% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 9.81 12.5979740519 78% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.37 8.32208582834 89% => OK
difficult_words: 65.0 98.500998004 66% => More difficult words wanted.
linsear_write_formula: 13.5 12.3882235529 109% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.8 11.1389221557 97% => OK
text_standard: 10.0 11.9071856287 84% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 58.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.5 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.