The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
The memo appeared to the board of directors of a heating oil company concludes that their company can anticipate a rise in the sales of heating oil in the upcoming days. It is based upon the elongated duration of the winter season in northeastern United States for present and unforeseeable future. However, before the prediction can be properly assessed, there questions must be answered.
First of all, is the sales of the heating oil increased in last year? It is possible that people of northeastern US are no longer using heating oil to warm their houses. Perhaps, they preferred heating oil as temporary solution for short span of winter but now they are switching to a more automated or comfortable solution. It may be possible that during the last one year, the sales of heating oil actually decreased and people are no longer interested to use heating oil for the upcoming years. If any of this situation comes to light, the argument does not hold water.
Secondly, are the infrastructures of new homes and traditional buildings comparable? It may be possible that the old structured homes don't have the facility to use modern heating system to warm their houses and that's why they are bound to use heating oil. But the recently developed homes have all the necessary provisions and they don't need to use heating oil anymore to warm their houses. In addition, it is also possible that establishment of new homes does not mean the population growth, it may indicate that people from the old buildings are planning to switch to newer houses to avoid the hassles of using heating oil. If any of the aforementioned points has merit, the conclusion of the argument will be seriously undermined.
Last but not the least, is the demand of the heating oil for next five years accurately forecasted? It maybe possible that people don't like to go outside to buy heating oil during winter frequently and they purchase a bulk amount of oils in the very first year after the announcement from the climate forecasters. It is also a possibility that after the announcement, many people will eventually left northeastern area in the winter and stay in Texas or other warm area. If any of the above circumstances becomes true, the anticipation of the writer will be weakened.
To summarize, the argument as it stands now, is seriously flawed because of its' reliance on many unwarranted assumptions. If the author is able to response to the questions mentioned in the above writing and provide evidences (perhaps in the form of a systematic research study), the prediction of the author may be properly evaluate
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Comments
Essay evaluations by e-grader
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 214, Rule ID: THE_FALL_SEASON[1]
Message: Use simply 'winter'.
Suggestion: winter
...is based upon the elongated duration of the winter season in northeastern United States for prese...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 135, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: don't
... possible that the old structured homes dont have the facility to use modern heating...
^^^^
Line 5, column 212, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: that's
...heating system to warm their houses and thats why they are bound to use heating oil. ...
^^^^^
Line 5, column 333, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: don't
...e all the necessary provisions and they dont need to use heating oil anymore to warm...
^^^^
Line 7, column 131, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: don't
...recasted? It maybe possible that people dont like to go outside to buy heating oil d...
^^^^
Line 7, column 158, Rule ID: BUY_VBG[1]
Message: Did you mean 'by'?
Suggestion: by
... that people dont like to go outside to buy heating oil during winter frequently an...
^^^
Line 7, column 397, Rule ID: DID_BASEFORM[1]
Message: The verb 'will' requires the base form of the verb: 'leave'
Suggestion: leave
...nouncement, many people will eventually left northeastern area in the winter and sta...
^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
actually, also, but, first, however, if, may, second, secondly, so, in addition, first of all
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 21.0 19.6327345309 107% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 11.0 12.9520958084 85% => OK
Conjunction : 13.0 11.1786427146 116% => OK
Relative clauses : 8.0 13.6137724551 59% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 29.0 28.8173652695 101% => OK
Preposition: 64.0 55.5748502994 115% => OK
Nominalization: 16.0 16.3942115768 98% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2170.0 2260.96107784 96% => OK
No of words: 443.0 441.139720559 100% => OK
Chars per words: 4.89841986456 5.12650576532 96% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.58776254615 4.56307096286 101% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.81105542845 2.78398813304 101% => OK
Unique words: 207.0 204.123752495 101% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.467268623025 0.468620217663 100% => OK
syllable_count: 692.1 705.55239521 98% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 9.0 4.96107784431 181% => OK
Article: 7.0 8.76447105788 80% => OK
Subordination: 5.0 2.70958083832 185% => OK
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 3.0 4.22255489022 71% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 19.0 19.7664670659 96% => OK
Sentence length: 23.0 22.8473053892 101% => OK
Sentence length SD: 47.985801224 57.8364921388 83% => OK
Chars per sentence: 114.210526316 119.503703932 96% => OK
Words per sentence: 23.3157894737 23.324526521 100% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.89473684211 5.70786347227 86% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 7.0 5.25449101796 133% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 9.0 8.20758483034 110% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 6.0 6.88822355289 87% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 4.0 4.67664670659 86% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.3201486778 0.218282227539 147% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.101239637294 0.0743258471296 136% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0899083047588 0.0701772020484 128% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.175683384815 0.128457276422 137% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.102396858243 0.0628817314937 163% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 13.3 14.3799401198 92% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 48.13 48.3550499002 100% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 12.3 12.197005988 101% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 11.44 12.5979740519 91% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.31 8.32208582834 100% => OK
difficult_words: 99.0 98.500998004 101% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 8.0 12.3882235529 65% => OK
gunning_fog: 11.2 11.1389221557 101% => OK
text_standard: 12.0 11.9071856287 101% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 58.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.5 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 214, Rule ID: THE_FALL_SEASON[1]
Message: Use simply 'winter'.
Suggestion: winter
...is based upon the elongated duration of the winter season in northeastern United States for prese...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 135, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: don't
... possible that the old structured homes dont have the facility to use modern heating...
^^^^
Line 5, column 212, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: that's
...heating system to warm their houses and thats why they are bound to use heating oil. ...
^^^^^
Line 5, column 333, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: don't
...e all the necessary provisions and they dont need to use heating oil anymore to warm...
^^^^
Line 7, column 131, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: don't
...recasted? It maybe possible that people dont like to go outside to buy heating oil d...
^^^^
Line 7, column 158, Rule ID: BUY_VBG[1]
Message: Did you mean 'by'?
Suggestion: by
... that people dont like to go outside to buy heating oil during winter frequently an...
^^^
Line 7, column 397, Rule ID: DID_BASEFORM[1]
Message: The verb 'will' requires the base form of the verb: 'leave'
Suggestion: leave
...nouncement, many people will eventually left northeastern area in the winter and sta...
^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
actually, also, but, first, however, if, may, second, secondly, so, in addition, first of all
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 21.0 19.6327345309 107% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 11.0 12.9520958084 85% => OK
Conjunction : 13.0 11.1786427146 116% => OK
Relative clauses : 8.0 13.6137724551 59% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 29.0 28.8173652695 101% => OK
Preposition: 64.0 55.5748502994 115% => OK
Nominalization: 16.0 16.3942115768 98% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2170.0 2260.96107784 96% => OK
No of words: 443.0 441.139720559 100% => OK
Chars per words: 4.89841986456 5.12650576532 96% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.58776254615 4.56307096286 101% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.81105542845 2.78398813304 101% => OK
Unique words: 207.0 204.123752495 101% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.467268623025 0.468620217663 100% => OK
syllable_count: 692.1 705.55239521 98% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 9.0 4.96107784431 181% => OK
Article: 7.0 8.76447105788 80% => OK
Subordination: 5.0 2.70958083832 185% => OK
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 3.0 4.22255489022 71% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 19.0 19.7664670659 96% => OK
Sentence length: 23.0 22.8473053892 101% => OK
Sentence length SD: 47.985801224 57.8364921388 83% => OK
Chars per sentence: 114.210526316 119.503703932 96% => OK
Words per sentence: 23.3157894737 23.324526521 100% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.89473684211 5.70786347227 86% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 7.0 5.25449101796 133% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 9.0 8.20758483034 110% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 6.0 6.88822355289 87% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 4.0 4.67664670659 86% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.3201486778 0.218282227539 147% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.101239637294 0.0743258471296 136% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0899083047588 0.0701772020484 128% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.175683384815 0.128457276422 137% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.102396858243 0.0628817314937 163% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 13.3 14.3799401198 92% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 48.13 48.3550499002 100% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 12.3 12.197005988 101% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 11.44 12.5979740519 91% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.31 8.32208582834 100% => OK
difficult_words: 99.0 98.500998004 101% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 8.0 12.3882235529 65% => OK
gunning_fog: 11.2 11.1389221557 101% => OK
text_standard: 12.0 11.9071856287 101% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 58.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.5 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.