The following appeared in a health newsletter."A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicates that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that numbe

An article in a health magazine indicates that according to two nationwide 10 year surveys while the percentage of bicyclists wearing helmets increased there has also been an increase in the accidents involving bicycles. Thus, the author believes that by educating the bicyclists the percentage of the accidents will decrease. The author in his way of supporting his conclusion falls into a series of assumptions. The most prominent ones are being summarized in the paragraphs below.

Firstly, the author of the article fallibly assumes that, just because the two surveys indicated that while bicyclists wear helmets more the accidents increased, there has to be a connection between them. The author assumes that the more safe bicyclists think they are the more risks they take. Consider the following counter example: a third survey indicates that the number of vehicles in the cities increased by more than 300% in the 10 year period. The results from this survey may indicate that while bicyclists wear helmets in fact they are not safer because the vehicles in the streets are much more than 10 years ago and the car-bicycle accidents occur much more often than before. If true, this could seriously undermine the assumption the author is making and prove that the connection between the increase of bicyclists wearing helmets and the accidents is weak or non-existent.

In addition, a fallacy is made by the author regarding the two surveys. Even, if we assume that the second survey is also nationwide we cannot assume that these two surveys have the same conditions as the author falsibly assumes. For example, the first survey was conducted in 10 cities of North America and with a sample of 10.000 people from both genders while the second one was conducted only to 5 cities and with a sample of 2000 people mainly males. Both, surveys are nationwide but the sample in the second survey is much less than the first one and not representative. This could result to false data and thus to less credibility of the surveys conducted. The example above indicates that assuming the two surveys were conducted under the same conditions could lead to false conclusions regarding the accidents and the bicyclists safety. However, if the author cites some more information regarding the surveys and indicate that both were conducted by the same company with the same sample and during the same periods than the argument of the author will stand true and actions should be made accordingly.

Lastly, in his conclusion the author is proposing educating the bicyclists in order to reduce the accidents assuming that they are the only ones responsible for the accidents. There are a variety of factors which the author fails to take into consideration before concluding to this proposition, such as the existance of specific roads for the bicycles, the quality of these roads and last but not least the vehicle drivers consciousness and education against bicyclists. For instance, if during these 10 years the bicycle roads were not sustained properly and several bumps and holes were created the accidents from the bicyclists falling into these holes would surely increase. Also, if the new drivers who came out during these years were not educated properly on how to handle the bicyclists on the road this may have contributed to the increase of the accidents. Therefore, assuming that educating the bicyclists more on general safety will decrease the percent of the accidents may not hold as an argument due to other factors who may have contributed to these accidents

To sum up, in this essay the assumptions made by the author and the was these assumptions have an effect on the conclusion of the article were mainly demonstrated through examples. The author should cite more evidence in order to provide solid basis for the assumptions mentioned in the paragraphs above otherwise his conclusion may prove unwarranted.