The following appeared in a memo from New Ventures Consulting to the president of HobCo, Inc., a chain of hobby shops."Our team has completed its research on suitable building sites for a new HobCo hobby Shop in the city of Grilldon. We discovered that th

The originator of the argument recommends opening a HobCo Hobby Shop in southeastern Grilldon because this novel store will attract a steady stream of customers. This statement is based on evidence which ought to be carefully questioned in order to give a comprehensive estimation of the likeliness of the recommendation.

To begin with, we are told that today there is no hobby shops in southeastern Grilldon and that local residents welcome the opening of a novel hobby shop in the area. However, the writer does not give us any information about plans of rival companies, perhaps, if the area is indeed attractive for this kind of business, some other firms are going to open a shop as well. In this case, the HobCo will face a stiff competition which may reduce the chances on success of the enterprise. Moreover, it is assumed that 88 percent of local residents will buy products in the HobCo; however, this assumption is unsupported because those respondents only stated that they would welcome the shop. In other words, there is no guarantee that local inhabitants will purchase goods and product in the opened shop.

Secondly, there is data that hobby business in the city has skyrocketed by 300 percent during past decade. Moreover, Grilldon has a large number of retirees who can devote their time to hobbies. Although this data seems to be persuasive, closer look at it reveals some problems. For instance, the writer tends to extrapolate the increase business which is connected with hobbies in Grilldon on southeastern part of the town, however, a possibility exists that the increase happened only in, for example, northern part of the town. From this viewpoint the extrapolation of overall improvement on one part - southeastern - is unreasonable. Furthermore, perhaps, the demand in goods and tools for hobby may be satisfied by existing shops. Besides, we have author's belief that residents who live in area will devote their spare time and money to hobbies. However, they may use their time for other activities, for instance, tourism or caring about grandchildren. Additionally to it, they may like hobbies which require no investments, for instance, reading books or watching TV. Consequently, this evidence cannot convince us that recommendation is accurate.

Finally, the arguer concludes that opening a new hobby store at the area will attract many enthusiastic customers. However, a steady stream of purchaser may not appear because the writer does not prove that a stable demand on goods sold which will be sold in the new shop exists. Moreover, even if we assume that local residents indeed devote their time to hobby, they may prefer to buy needed material in other stores which are located in other parts of Grilldon or they may use the internet as more convenient and cheaper way to buy materials for their hobby.

In conclusion, although originator suggests opening new store in Grilldon, the given evidence has failed to create a sound support for the recommendation. Therefore, the implementation of the recommendation may and may not lead to expected result.