The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company Several recent surveys indicate that home owners are increasingly eager to conserve energy At the same time manufacturers are now marketing many home applianc

The argument above is well-presented and appears to be relatively sound at first glance: since the new electronic devices and cutting-edge technology allow decreasing in people's energy usage, the author's conclusion that the generating plants do not need to be constructed seems persuasive. However, as more light is shed on the issue and more detailed facts are concerned, it is easy to see that the argument suffers from several grave fallacies in its assumptions.

First, the author assumes that the energy efficient devices can yield decrease in energy spending. Since those home appliances are almost twice as energy efficient as previous devices, the author hastily believes that the total energy consumption will decrease in the future. However, it is plausible that the number of such devices in each house may increase at an exponential rate so that the total amount of energy consumption may be maintained or rise. In this case, the authors assertion that less energy will consume can be weaken.

Another assumption the author makes is that the people’s eager to conserve energy will cause the purchase of energy efficient home appliances and the installation of new technologies. However, in all likelihood, the people’s desire to spend less energy does not engender their decision to buy products. Putting it differently, people may not decide to buy and install the cutting-edge devices and technology since the costs of them are exorbitant. If this would be the case, people will continue to use their old appliances and heating methods and their energy spending might not be maintain or decrease in the long run.

Lastly, the author assumes the soundness of the conclusion that construction of new generating plants will not be necessary. However, the author should take into account the energy consumption of other sectors such as businesses and industries. It is quite possible that the energy usage of businesses and industries will increase as the number of factories in the country rises in the future. In such a case, even though the energy spending on housing diminishes, the total energy consumption can possibly stay constant or increase and the country may need to implement new generating plants.

In conclusion, the author’s assertion is not cogent in many perspectives. To bolster the argument, the author corroborate the detailed relationship between the state-of-the-art devices and people’s energy consumption and verify the soundness of the conclusion.