The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.
"Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine. Thus, we predict that Happy Pancake House will be able to increase profits dramatically if we extend this cost-saving change to all our restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
In the memorandum, from the business manager of the happy pancake house restaurants had mentioned that, Happy pancake would be able to redouble its profit through cost saving approach of replacing butter with margarine and flourishing it among its all the restaurant can make them inordinately profitable. They have come to this conclusion based on the fact that out of 100 people 98 were happy with the change made in the restaurant. Along with it, the conclusion had been made based on the incapability of the customer to distinguish between the butter and margarine. However, before this recommendation can be made, the author should be able to answer the following three questions.
Firstly, Are the margarine which is interchanged with the butter are as healthy as the butter? Perhaps if the margarine which is replaced with the butter if give rise to some health issues or some maladies than the flow of the customer can get reduced. As the health is always the major factor for all the people. May be some of the customer may have allergic problem with the margarine and may not have with the butter. So, such change may hamper on the health and profit of the restaurants. If either of this scenario are true, then conclusion made would be significantly weakened.
Secondly, Can we make this generalization that the change of butter with margarine would be profitable among all of its branches based on the survey made on single branch? Perhaps the author had made the assumptions prematurely that if customer of one of its branches are happy with change, then other customers of other branches would also be. But, In other branches the customer may distinguish between the taste of butter and margarine and would dislike the change. So, this assumption made by the business manager may be totally flawed.
Furthermore, based on only this change can we estimate the profit on the business? Perhaps, some customer may mainly be happy with hospitality of the restaurant than with the taste of the food. The change made by the restaurant may be true for profit but if the customers are hospitality seeker and if restaurant short fall on the hospitality matter than conjecture of the profitability made on the argument would be totally baseless.
In conclusion, the argument, as it stands now are totally flawed due to its reliance on the baseless assumption. If the business manager would be able to give answer to the above three question or would provide more evidence, then the recommendation provided by the above conclusion can be considered.
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Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 6 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 2 2
No. of Sentences: 19 15
No. of Words: 429 350
No. of Characters: 2083 1500
No. of Different Words: 162 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.551 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.855 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.702 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 146 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 101 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 80 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 49 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 22.579 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 9.366 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.789 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.362 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.362 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.128 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 1 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 2, column 318, Rule ID: HE_VERB_AGR[8]
Message: The proper name in singular (May) must be used with a third-person verb: 'is'.
Suggestion: is
...he major factor for all the people. May be some of the customer may have allergic ...
^^
Line 2, column 321, Rule ID: SOME_OF_THE[1]
Message: Simply use 'some'.
Suggestion: some
...major factor for all the people. May be some of the customer may have allergic problem with...
^^^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, first, firstly, furthermore, however, if, may, second, secondly, so, then, in conclusion
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 24.0 19.6327345309 122% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 23.0 12.9520958084 178% => OK
Conjunction : 10.0 11.1786427146 89% => OK
Relative clauses : 6.0 13.6137724551 44% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 22.0 28.8173652695 76% => OK
Preposition: 62.0 55.5748502994 112% => OK
Nominalization: 10.0 16.3942115768 61% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2129.0 2260.96107784 94% => OK
No of words: 429.0 441.139720559 97% => OK
Chars per words: 4.9627039627 5.12650576532 97% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.55107846309 4.56307096286 100% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.77619931136 2.78398813304 100% => OK
Unique words: 175.0 204.123752495 86% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.407925407925 0.468620217663 87% => More unique words wanted or less content wanted.
syllable_count: 677.7 705.55239521 96% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 2.0 4.96107784431 40% => OK
Article: 4.0 8.76447105788 46% => OK
Subordination: 5.0 2.70958083832 185% => OK
Conjunction: 0.0 1.67365269461 0% => OK
Preposition: 6.0 4.22255489022 142% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 19.0 19.7664670659 96% => OK
Sentence length: 22.0 22.8473053892 96% => OK
Sentence length SD: 60.1470957752 57.8364921388 104% => OK
Chars per sentence: 112.052631579 119.503703932 94% => OK
Words per sentence: 22.5789473684 23.324526521 97% => OK
Discourse Markers: 5.21052631579 5.70786347227 91% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 2.0 5.25449101796 38% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 10.0 8.20758483034 122% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 3.0 6.88822355289 44% => More negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 6.0 4.67664670659 128% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.214209856899 0.218282227539 98% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.070474817599 0.0743258471296 95% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0763062865543 0.0701772020484 109% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.126475396457 0.128457276422 98% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0802066396496 0.0628817314937 128% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 13.2 14.3799401198 92% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 49.15 48.3550499002 102% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.9 12.197005988 98% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 11.78 12.5979740519 94% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.45 8.32208582834 90% => OK
difficult_words: 74.0 98.500998004 75% => More difficult words wanted.
linsear_write_formula: 14.0 12.3882235529 113% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.8 11.1389221557 97% => OK
text_standard: 12.0 11.9071856287 101% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.