The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client."Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienc

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The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.

"Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures, and local weather forecasters throughout the region predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Based on these developments, we predict a large increase in the demand for heating oil. Therefore, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

Investment should be made in Consolidated Industries to meet the expected growing need of home heating oil in northeastern United States. At first glance, the author’s evidences seems somewhat convincing, but further reflection reveals some substantial concerns that should be addressed, and thus, not cogent enough to substantiate the argument. At least, this argument suffers from three main logical flaws.

To start with, the author’s assumption that the demand of heating oil is surely to increase in the near future is unwarranted. What is the surety that the residents of Northeastern Uni...

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