Do you agree or disagree with the following statement?In twenty years, there will be fewer cars in use than there are today.Use specific reasons and examples to support your answer.

I disagree that in twenty years, cars would be fewer than today. Considering the development of replacement of fossil fuels, the global economy and the enormous auto industry, the decrease of cars could not be seen in the near future.

Firstly, scientists could come up with some solutions to the fuel crisis. Nowadays, there already have been some alternative fuels other than gasoline that could be used in auto engines, such as solar power, electricity, gas, which are environmental friendly. Even though some of the replacements have not being used widely, personally, I would hold optimistic attitude towards these inventions in cutting down the cost of producing. In twenty years, some methods could be come up with to solve the oil shortage problem and make it cheaper in using cars. Companies are concentrating on that breakthrough because it would bring loads of profit.

Moreover, there are more developing countries than developed countries today in the whole world, thus in the future twenty years, more countries would concentrate their policies that benefit the economic growth, and using more cars could definitely be an outcome alongside the booming economy. For example, the economic growth pattern would be similar to most of the countries in the world, so that some developing countries' situations in the future would copy the circumstances that some developed countries are enduring right now, like the United States which partially relied its development on wheels. Additionally, the usage of vehicles would certainly enhance the speed of economic growth, such as the speed of delivery, which would make trades go faster.

Finally, it is really hard for the huge auto industry to shrink in such a short time period without some effective substitutes. Trains could only transmit people and commodities between specific places, and it is inconvenient to switch different transportation methods from the train to the destination. Subways could have the same issues as trains, plus some cities' underground conditions are so complicated that make it impossible to dig the tubes for subways. Buses, as well as the subway, would give no privacy for passengers, and sometimes could be so crowded. It would need more than twenty years to find a replacement for autos finally, and at the same time, many countries could not afford the cost for the suddenly decrease in car industry, since so many countries' economies rely on it, like Japan, Germany, the United States, even China.