The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
In the memo to the board of directors of the company specialized in delivery of heating oil, the author has concluded that there will be an increased demand for the heating oil in the coming five years. The author has come to this conclusion based on a report by climate forecaster and the increasing number of houses in the nearby region. However, before this memo could be properly evaluated, third specific piece of information will need to be provided by the author.
Firstly, the author has blindly relied on the climate forecasters' report reports which, based on last year's heating season, states about the increment in the heating season of the future. The sources of the climate prediction however remains unclear. This could be a report of some local enthusiasts who might have made the assertion simply based on the a insignificant sample of knowledge and without having sufficient scientific reliablity behind it. There could be chances that these enthusiasts might have missed considering certain global adversities such a Global Warming. They could also have been considering certain dogmatic approaches which might have been obsecure in the recent time. If the reliablity of the reports, on which the author has presented his memo, is not justified, his or her aversion could be significantly weakend.
Secondly, the memo relies on the ongoing houses construction in the nearby region that will be considered as a factor of the inrceased demands of the heating oil. The report does not draw any light on the technology that will be introduced in the newly built houses. It could be possible that the new construction introduced some latest heating techniques or uses other heating methods to keep the houses warm during the upcoming heating seasons. There could also be a chance that eventhough the new houses uses the oil based heating technique, it would simple be requiring more and more oil. There could be some upgradation in the oil consumption and so if the author is not able to justify these reasons, his argument will not hold water.
Thirdly, the author has not provided enough evidences about the sell of heating oil in the current or last heating season. Perhaps the locals of the city have simply boycotted the use of heating oil as it might have been producing ample pollution. There could have been some recent awareness compaigns that would have resulted in people discarding the use of conventional heating method and forced to accept new techniques. If this is not guarentted, the authors assertion will be flawed.
In conclusion, the argument, as it stands now, is considered flawed due to its irrelevance on the sources of its claim and the non-reliablity of unwarrented claim. If the author is able to present sufficient evidence to support his or her argument for the above stated reasons, his claims could be treated to be sufficently reliable.
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| 2023-09-09 | shekhar | 64 | view |
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- Most homes in the northeastern United States where winters are typically cold have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below normal temperatures and climate forecasters predict th 68
- The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil Most homes in the northeastern United States where winters are typically cold have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heati 73
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 3, column 351, Rule ID: DT_DT[1]
Message: Maybe you need to remove one determiner so that only 'the' or 'a' is left.
Suggestion: the; a
...have made the assertion simply based on the a insignificant sample of knowledge and w...
^^^^^
Line 3, column 355, Rule ID: EN_A_VS_AN
Message: Use 'an' instead of 'a' if the following word starts with a vowel sound, e.g. 'an article', 'an hour'
Suggestion: an
... made the assertion simply based on the a insignificant sample of knowledge and w...
^
Line 5, column 42, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'houses'' or 'house's'?
Suggestion: houses'; house's
...econdly, the memo relies on the ongoing houses construction in the nearby region that ...
^^^^^^
Line 7, column 456, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...hniques. If this is not guarentted, the authors assertion will be flawed. In conclus...
^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, first, firstly, however, if, second, secondly, so, third, thirdly, thus, in conclusion
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 24.0 19.6327345309 122% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 23.0 12.9520958084 178% => OK
Conjunction : 10.0 11.1786427146 89% => OK
Relative clauses : 11.0 13.6137724551 81% => OK
Pronoun: 28.0 28.8173652695 97% => OK
Preposition: 60.0 55.5748502994 108% => OK
Nominalization: 15.0 16.3942115768 91% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2416.0 2260.96107784 107% => OK
No of words: 479.0 441.139720559 109% => OK
Chars per words: 5.04384133612 5.12650576532 98% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.67825486995 4.56307096286 103% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.71505037802 2.78398813304 98% => OK
Unique words: 221.0 204.123752495 108% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.461377870564 0.468620217663 98% => OK
syllable_count: 744.3 705.55239521 105% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 7.0 4.96107784431 141% => OK
Article: 9.0 8.76447105788 103% => OK
Subordination: 5.0 2.70958083832 185% => OK
Conjunction: 0.0 1.67365269461 0% => OK
Preposition: 4.0 4.22255489022 95% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 20.0 19.7664670659 101% => OK
Sentence length: 23.0 22.8473053892 101% => OK
Sentence length SD: 38.1109892288 57.8364921388 66% => OK
Chars per sentence: 120.8 119.503703932 101% => OK
Words per sentence: 23.95 23.324526521 103% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.6 5.70786347227 81% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 4.0 5.25449101796 76% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 7.0 8.20758483034 85% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 6.0 6.88822355289 87% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 7.0 4.67664670659 150% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.176879339218 0.218282227539 81% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0637807563464 0.0743258471296 86% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0742615839732 0.0701772020484 106% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.112763317474 0.128457276422 88% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.057499704275 0.0628817314937 91% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 14.3 14.3799401198 99% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 48.13 48.3550499002 100% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 12.3 12.197005988 101% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 12.25 12.5979740519 97% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.86 8.32208582834 106% => OK
difficult_words: 124.0 98.500998004 126% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 14.0 12.3882235529 113% => OK
gunning_fog: 11.2 11.1389221557 101% => OK
text_standard: 9.0 11.9071856287 76% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.