The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years."
The author claims that the region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years. Stated this way, the argument fails to consider several key facts, shreds of evidence, circumstances, on the basis of which it can be evaluated. Moreover, the author provides the instances with poor reasoning and inappropriate assumptions. After prim analysis of author's argument, it can be seen that the author provides shreds of evidence that do not support the argument to a greater extent. Hence the argument can be considered as incomplete and improper.
Firstly, the author wrongly assumes that all the residents are using oil based heaters in their houses. People think about money when it comes to investing the money for a long period. Also, they try to minimize the cost as much as possible by considering other possible cheaper resources. As stated by the author, the forecast says that there would be below normal temperature for 90 days around the year for next five years. In this case, the people might think to change their oil heaters, if any, to the more cheaper resource than oil, like electricity. Thus, this tells us that the demand for oil might not increase, rather the people using one might stop using it. And so, the author's assumption of an increase in demand for oil heater won't stand true and people would opt to change their oil-based heater to electricity based one after knowing the forecast for next 5 years.
Secondly, as the author stated, new houses are built in the same region due to growth in population. But, the author hasn't understood it completely. As the houses are build recently, they would surely have all the recent tech and amenities include a heater which isn't oil based. The oil based heaters are old fashioned and fewer few people prefer them due to more maintenance and cost. Furthermore, these high tech heaters would provide more facilities than the oil-based and thus there would be mouth publicity of these products. This all summarizes to a point that the demand for an oil-based heater is going to reduce as there is an advancement in technology which in turn reduce the demand for oil.
Thirdly, oil is needed only for 90 days around the year when there is a need for the heater. Remaining 9 months there won't be any demand for oil. Moreover, people preferring oil heaters might have their own resources for oil and might have invested for the same long ago. Hence, it is not necessary that the demand should increase in upcoming years.
In conclusion, the author's argument is unconvincing as it stands. To support it further, the author can provide better or more concrete evidence, perhaps by conducting a detailed survey. Finally, the author can assess the shreds of evidence or the argument by going into depth of the topic and understand why the region should experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years.
| Post date | Users | Rates | Link to Content |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-07-07 | Primace | 77 | view |
| 2019-04-20 | Ethen | 74 | view |
| 2018-09-21 | saha.biswajit.1992@gmail.com | 35 | view |
| 2018-07-23 | heogogre | 84 | view |
| 2018-06-24 | valay_aura | 55 | view |
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Comments
Essay evaluation report
argument 1 -- somehow duplicated to argument 2.
better way: the climate forecasters predict didn't tell how many days for above-normal temperatures.
argument 2 -- OK, or: people buy the house for investment only.
argument 3 -- the topic only said: 'this region will experience an increased demand', it did not say: 'Remaining 9 months there won't be any demand for oil.'
----------------
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 25 15
No. of Words: 501 350
No. of Characters: 2369 1500
No. of Different Words: 219 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.731 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.729 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.424 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 168 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 103 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 79 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 43 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 20.04 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 7.66 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.6 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.317 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.503 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.094 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 509, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: Hence,
...pport the argument to a greater extent. Hence the argument can be considered as incom...
^^^^^
Line 3, column 509, Rule ID: MOST_COMPARATIVE[2]
Message: Use only 'cheaper' (without 'more') when you use the comparative.
Suggestion: cheaper
...hange their oil heaters, if any, to the more cheaper resource than oil, like electricity. Th...
^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 684, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...ng one might stop using it. And so, the authors assumption of an increase in demand for...
^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 118, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: hasn't
...o growth in population. But, the author hasnt understood it completely. As the houses...
^^^^^
Line 5, column 264, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: isn't
...ch and amenities include a heater which isnt oil based. The oil based heaters are ol...
^^^^
Line 9, column 20, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...n upcoming years. In conclusion, the authors argument is unconvincing as it stands. ...
^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, finally, first, firstly, furthermore, hence, if, moreover, second, secondly, so, third, thirdly, thus, in conclusion
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 16.0 19.6327345309 81% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 19.0 12.9520958084 147% => OK
Conjunction : 12.0 11.1786427146 107% => OK
Relative clauses : 13.0 13.6137724551 95% => OK
Pronoun: 30.0 28.8173652695 104% => OK
Preposition: 47.0 55.5748502994 85% => OK
Nominalization: 16.0 16.3942115768 98% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2429.0 2260.96107784 107% => OK
No of words: 497.0 441.139720559 113% => OK
Chars per words: 4.88732394366 5.12650576532 95% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.72159896747 4.56307096286 103% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.50133542462 2.78398813304 90% => OK
Unique words: 227.0 204.123752495 111% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.456740442656 0.468620217663 97% => OK
syllable_count: 739.8 705.55239521 105% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.5 1.59920159681 94% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 7.0 4.96107784431 141% => OK
Article: 12.0 8.76447105788 137% => OK
Subordination: 5.0 2.70958083832 185% => OK
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 7.0 4.22255489022 166% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 25.0 19.7664670659 126% => OK
Sentence length: 19.0 22.8473053892 83% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 41.9466327612 57.8364921388 73% => OK
Chars per sentence: 97.16 119.503703932 81% => OK
Words per sentence: 19.88 23.324526521 85% => OK
Discourse Markers: 5.08 5.70786347227 89% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 6.0 5.25449101796 114% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 7.0 8.20758483034 85% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 9.0 6.88822355289 131% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 9.0 4.67664670659 192% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.169734418468 0.218282227539 78% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0553593211893 0.0743258471296 74% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0550795546633 0.0701772020484 78% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.10935934104 0.128457276422 85% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0594228210288 0.0628817314937 94% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 11.5 14.3799401198 80% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 60.65 48.3550499002 125% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 9.5 12.197005988 78% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 11.08 12.5979740519 88% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.88 8.32208582834 95% => OK
difficult_words: 104.0 98.500998004 106% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 8.0 12.3882235529 65% => OK
gunning_fog: 9.6 11.1389221557 86% => OK
text_standard: 8.0 11.9071856287 67% => The average readability is low. Need to imporve the language.
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.