The following appeared in a memorandum from the manager of WWAC radio station.
"To reverse a decline in listener numbers, our owners have decided that WWAC must change from its current rock-music format. The decline has occurred despite population growth in our listening area, but that growth has resulted mainly from people moving here after their retirement. We must make listeners of these new residents. We could switch to a music format tailored to their tastes, but a continuing decline in local sales of recorded music suggests limited interest in music. Instead we should change to a news and talk format, a form of radio that is increasingly popular in our area."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
The recommendation by the manager of a radio station states the change in format from rock music to news and talk format because this format is popular and there is a decline in listeners of rock music despite increase in population growth. However, the argument does not make a cogent case since it is rife with holes and unverified assumptions. Before the argument can be properly evaluated, following evidences must be collected.
First of all, will new format reverse the trend? In other words, is it justified to assume that if a radio station adopts a new format, it will increase the listeners? It may be futile. For instance, it may happen that if this radio station adopts the suggested new format, but it fails to attract listeners because transition of people listening to this new format on the existing station to new one is not certain. Further, it may also happen that residents of this city may not willing to listen to either of these two formats and may like to listen some other types of entertainment like documentaries. If any of the above examples are true, then the argument is significantly weakened.
Secondly, will the people moving to this location like news format? In other words, it is correct to assume that people who are moving to this location are willing to listen to news format? It may be spurious. For instance, it may happen that this bunch of people may willing to rock-music only since they are of old age given their retirement, therefore, may like to listen to rock music to relive their younger age. Further, it may be unconventional to assume that people will keep moving to this location and will continue to like news format. Since it may happen that increase in population growth is only occasional and it may cease to happen after few months and these people may like to listen everything but news format. If any of the above instance hold merit, then the argument does not hold the water.
Third, do existing population not like rock music? In other words, it is appreciable to assume that existing listeners are unwilling to listen to rock music. It may be unverified. For instance, it may happen that these people may willing to listen to the current format but may switch to its competitors because of some prize or competitions might have associated with the listening. Further, it is also incorrect to assume that existing listeners will also like new format since it may happen that these people may not like new format but may stop listening existing format because this radio station airs commercials beyond the tolerance levels of the listeners. Unless the memorandum is verified and reliable, it is not possible to effectively support the argument of the manager.
In conclusion, the argument as it stands now, is considerably flawed since it is based on several unwarranted assumptions. If the manager is able to provide above evidences and offer more validations perhaps in the form of market research about preference of listeners, then it will be possible to check the viability of the recommendation.
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Comments
Essay evaluation report
flaws:
need to argue according to the topic, for example, content about: 'people moving here after their retirement', ' a continuing decline in local sales of recorded music'
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Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 24 15
No. of Words: 523 350
No. of Characters: 2491 1500
No. of Different Words: 190 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.782 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.763 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.606 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 183 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 119 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 85 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 53 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 21.792 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 12.573 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.875 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.35 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.512 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.105 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, first, however, if, may, second, secondly, so, then, therefore, third, for instance, in conclusion, first of all, in other words
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 27.0 19.6327345309 138% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 30.0 12.9520958084 232% => Less auxiliary verb wanted.
Conjunction : 14.0 11.1786427146 125% => OK
Relative clauses : 12.0 13.6137724551 88% => OK
Pronoun: 50.0 28.8173652695 174% => Less pronouns wanted
Preposition: 86.0 55.5748502994 155% => OK
Nominalization: 28.0 16.3942115768 171% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2557.0 2260.96107784 113% => OK
No of words: 523.0 441.139720559 119% => OK
Chars per words: 4.88910133843 5.12650576532 95% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.78217453174 4.56307096286 105% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.70646701716 2.78398813304 97% => OK
Unique words: 200.0 204.123752495 98% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.38240917782 0.468620217663 82% => More unique words wanted or less content wanted.
syllable_count: 823.5 705.55239521 117% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 13.0 4.96107784431 262% => Less pronouns wanted as sentence beginning.
Article: 3.0 8.76447105788 34% => OK
Subordination: 6.0 2.70958083832 221% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 6.0 4.22255489022 142% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 24.0 19.7664670659 121% => OK
Sentence length: 21.0 22.8473053892 92% => OK
Sentence length SD: 73.9858751535 57.8364921388 128% => OK
Chars per sentence: 106.541666667 119.503703932 89% => OK
Words per sentence: 21.7916666667 23.324526521 93% => OK
Discourse Markers: 5.79166666667 5.70786347227 101% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 0.0 5.25449101796 0% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 10.0 8.20758483034 122% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 8.0 6.88822355289 116% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 6.0 4.67664670659 128% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.17075090061 0.218282227539 78% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0570111838387 0.0743258471296 77% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0736581126743 0.0701772020484 105% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.119118690103 0.128457276422 93% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0882033604843 0.0628817314937 140% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 12.5 14.3799401198 87% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 50.16 48.3550499002 104% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.5 12.197005988 94% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 11.08 12.5979740519 88% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.46 8.32208582834 90% => OK
difficult_words: 92.0 98.500998004 93% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 11.0 12.3882235529 89% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.4 11.1389221557 93% => OK
text_standard: 11.0 11.9071856287 92% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Rates: 58.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.5 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.