The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client."Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienc

The letter from a investment consulting company suggests that given the fact that the period of winter seems longer and people build more houses in the region, investors need to invest on Consoliated industries since the retail of home heating oil is involved, which is the necessarties for the residents in nothern United States. The argument seems to be convincing and riveting in a cursory reading, but an in-depth analysis reveals several logical fallacies and loopholes that have rendered it untentable.

First, the author, on the basis of the information provided by climate forecasters, argue that the similar weather pattern will repeat in the following few years. However,oftentimes,the report from forecaster is inaccurate and particularly for the long-term prediction. The author need to provide the information whether the report is conducted for several forecasters or the large group discussion. As far as technology concerned, two or three climate forecasters cannot presage accurate reports due to the subjective opinion, which usually ignore inconsequential but essential details. So solely reply on the single forecaster report will result in unpredicable consequence.

Second, the argument assumes that many new homes have been built is equivalent to more people will demand the heating service, which will result in the increase on the consumption of heating oil. Yet author does not provide any convincing evidence that sales of heating oil will be at the rate of upswing as a result of more homes in the region. The author should conduct a survey on those people living in the newly built house to see whether they intend to use the heating. It is likely that people who lived in the new house do not need heating or they are not at home most of time.

Third, Consolidated Industries is a large sector, but home heating oil is just small business, which is part of the industry. It is too impetuous to invest in the market before more warrated information and evidence present. The author need to do more research on the explicit relation between the indurstry and the home heating oil. Assumeing that the forecast is accurate, if the relation was extrincit, investors would not have any and significant profits, which invalidate the argument.

In conclusion, the author's inference solely rely on the unproven assumptions and unconvincing evidence, which could be interpreted on the other way around and weaken the argument.To make the recommendation more reliable, it is categorical that the argument is at presence of justified evidence and information other than unwarranted assumptions.