Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because these developments will certainly result in an increased demand for heating oil, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the advice and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the advice.
The author suggests an investment in Consolidated Industries, due to the predicted increase in demand for heating oil in the future. However, there are several questions that need to be answered to evaluate the claim.
The climate forecasters believe that the weather will continue to be at below-average temperatures for several more years. However, do the forecasters really have the ability to predict the weather accurately? They are probably just college students who are using the basic prediction model they just learned from the class, and don’t have any real-world case experience. Perhaps with the effect of global warming, the climate becomes more unstable and unpredictable, so it's more difficult to predict, especially in such a distant future. We need to know how accurate their prediction is, and whether those forecasters are professional enough to prove that their research is reliable.
Even if the climate goes colder in the future, we still have to ask: Is it the only way for people to keep warm? People may not only use heating oil but also use stoves, electric heaters or wear more clothes. If heating oil is the only way or the cheapest way to stay warm, most people will use it. But if there are other choices, the demand for heating oil will not increase.
The author claims that many new houses have been built in this region. What’s the occupancy rate in this region? Is this area popular? Did the population increase rapidly this year? Maybe these houses are owned by real estate companies and investors and they are not in a hurry to sell those properties. Or these may be just vacation homes, wherein the homeowner only lives here for a few months and is empty most of the time.
Even if those houses were sold and many people will live here, it doesn’t guarantee the increase of demand for heating oil. With the rapid development of technology, new homes will be built with new materials that can keep people warm inside. In addition, people will most likely move to a warmer place, if this place gets too cold.
Most importantly, the author recommends to invest in Consolidated Industries. However, is there any other competitor in this market? If the company has the biggest market share in this field, then the oil heating demand will have a high relevance to this company. But if there are many competitors in this market, then there will be more competition, so they have to advertise or promote a discount, and the profit could be low. The author needs to provide a detailed analysis and explanation of each side of the existing company.
The investment in Consolidated Industries may be credible, but the author needs to answer the questions stated above to strengthen his or her investment insight.
Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 7 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 4 2
No. of Sentences: 26 15
No. of Words: 468 350
No. of Characters: 2215 1500
No. of Different Words: 227 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.651 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.733 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.53 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 151 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 108 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 68 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 45 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 18 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 6.777 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.538 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.254 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.53 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.085 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 7 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 9, column 230, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
... with new materials that can keep people warm inside. In addition, people will mo...
^^
Line 11, column 30, Rule ID: ADMIT_ENJOY_VB[1]
Message: This verb is used with the gerund form: 'recommends investing'.
Suggestion: recommends investing
...o cold. Most importantly, the author recommends to invest in Consolidated Industries. However, is...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, however, if, may, really, so, still, then, in addition
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 24.0 19.6327345309 122% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 15.0 12.9520958084 116% => OK
Conjunction : 18.0 11.1786427146 161% => OK
Relative clauses : 6.0 13.6137724551 44% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 33.0 28.8173652695 115% => OK
Preposition: 48.0 55.5748502994 86% => OK
Nominalization: 13.0 16.3942115768 79% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2299.0 2260.96107784 102% => OK
No of words: 466.0 441.139720559 106% => OK
Chars per words: 4.93347639485 5.12650576532 96% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.64618479453 4.56307096286 102% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.63030697836 2.78398813304 94% => OK
Unique words: 232.0 204.123752495 114% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.497854077253 0.468620217663 106% => OK
syllable_count: 726.3 705.55239521 103% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 4.0 4.96107784431 81% => OK
Article: 8.0 8.76447105788 91% => OK
Subordination: 5.0 2.70958083832 185% => OK
Conjunction: 7.0 1.67365269461 418% => Less conjunction wanted as sentence beginning.
Preposition: 2.0 4.22255489022 47% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 26.0 19.7664670659 132% => OK
Sentence length: 17.0 22.8473053892 74% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 38.893421357 57.8364921388 67% => OK
Chars per sentence: 88.4230769231 119.503703932 74% => OK
Words per sentence: 17.9230769231 23.324526521 77% => OK
Discourse Markers: 2.5 5.70786347227 44% => More transition words/phrases wanted.
Paragraphs: 7.0 5.15768463074 136% => Less paragraphs wanted.
Language errors: 2.0 5.25449101796 38% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 13.0 8.20758483034 158% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 3.0 6.88822355289 44% => More negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 10.0 4.67664670659 214% => Less facts, knowledge or examples wanted.
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.17763236485 0.218282227539 81% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.04880693367 0.0743258471296 66% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0434969832549 0.0701772020484 62% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0791600945401 0.128457276422 62% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0463177440709 0.0628817314937 74% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 10.8 14.3799401198 75% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 54.22 48.3550499002 112% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 9.9 12.197005988 81% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 11.02 12.5979740519 87% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.07 8.32208582834 97% => OK
difficult_words: 106.0 98.500998004 108% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 8.5 12.3882235529 69% => OK
gunning_fog: 8.8 11.1389221557 79% => OK
text_standard: 9.0 11.9071856287 76% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Maximum six paragraphs wanted.
Rates: 50.0 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.