The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil."Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for he

The author of the memo predicts that region will experience an enhancement of demand for heating oil during next five years; this prediction is buttressed by evidence which ought to be questioned in order to give a comprehensive evaluation of the soundness of the prediction.

To begin with, the writer claims that previous season had 90 days with temperature below normal but how much below average the temperature was? Perhaps, the temperature was only a couple of degree below the average, thus this deviation cannot possibly seriously impact on people's behavior. What is more, in reality even if we accept for granted that the temperature was seriously below average, for instance by 10 degree, there is no guarantee that people changed their conduct, probably, they started to wear more clothes at home to avoid burning additional fuel. Consequently, the usage of this data is questionable.

Secondly, we know that forecasters predict that the pattern will proceed for several more years; however, weather predictions are often not precise in particular when we have a deal with such a huge for forecast time span as several years. Additionally to it, even if the prediction is accurate, we do not know how much below the temperature will be, the writer’s assumption that this predicted anomaly will be severe is not supported and thus the deviation may be mild as well. As a result, the author's belief in the reliability and usefulness of the forecast is unreasonable.

Thirdly, we are told that many new homes are being erected in the region; however, those new homes may have decent insulation which dramatically reduces usage of oil or they may use alternative and more efficient methods of heating, for instance, by electricity. Moreover, although those homes are being built now, we cannot be sure that people will buy them; the probability exists that an economic crisis takes place in the region and those novel houses will be unbought and abandoned. In other words, the usage of this evidence is dubious as well.

Finally, it is predicted that region will experience an increase in demand for oil during the next five years, at the same time the used evidence is infirm. What is more, why should we believe that the demand will be growing during next five years? Perhaps the increase will last for three or one year, in other words, this writer's statement is not supported by information given.

In conclusion, the originator of the memo avers that because of an anomaly cold previous season and forecast the demand for heating oil will surely increase, at the same time, the given data does not directly create a strong support for this stance, consequently, the predictions is weak and unreliable.