The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette."The population on Balmer Island doubles during the summer months. During the summer, then, the town council of Balmer Island should decrease the maximum number of moped rentals

The originator recommends implementing policy which has served well on neighboring island Torseau. The reduction of the number of moped available for renting should supposedly reduce appreciably the number of the accidents with mopeds and pedestrians during summertime. This statement is based on evidence which is connected with the conclusion by assumptions which should be carefully analyzed in order to gauge the soundness of the argument.

To begin with, the author maintains that limitation of maximum number of mopeds available for renting at island's rental firms from 50 to 30 items per day should dramatically decrease the number of accidents between moped drivers and pedestrians. However, the policy may not work properly if during summertime the number of mopeds rented in local farms is already less than 30. Moreover, the probability exists that the root of the problem is the island's pedestrians who routinely break the traffic laws and, for instance, cross roads where and when they want to do so etc. In other words, other reasons may be the cause of the bad statistic and the proposed policy will not affect them.

The second evidence which is given to us is that the similar policy which has been fulfilled on the nearby island of Torseau has brought a remarkable reduction of accidents involving mopeds. However, the likeliness exists that committee of Torseau has attempted other unstated measures which have direct or implicit influence on the success. For example, they may better island's road infrastructure and install road signs and traffic lights. They may repair roads and highways and for instance, forced all people who desire to rent a moped to pass short driving courses. In other words, a plethora of additional measures may take place on Torseau which led or contributed to the bright results.

However, even if we take for granted that policy worked well on the neighboring island; perhaps it may not work in new circumstances. For example, the reasons of the negative statistic of road accidents may differ from island to island. It is possible that many of Torseau' visitors rent mopeds, at the same time tourists of Balmer island rarely rent any means of transportation. Thus the policy which is aimed at restriction of the number of mopeds rented may not be equally effective in both places. Moreover, the author surmises that the most number of accidents on Torseau take place during summertime but the probability exists that during wintertime the majority of the accidents with mopeds have happened. For instance, in winter months roads may be more slip than usual and weather conditions be more severe and harsher. Consequently, drivers of mopeds are more prone to make mistakes which lead to accidents.

In conclusion, the arguer avers that repetition of policy which supposedly leads to positive aftermaths on Torseau will be successful on Balmer island; however, the writer has failed to bolster this idea and,perhaps, the policy will not tail expected results in new conditions.