The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region in response to recent polulation growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
In the letter, the firm provides investment advice for their client. The firm expects that a client would get profit if she invests in Consolidated Industries because the demand for heating oil which is the major business by Consolidated Industries will be increased due to weather change and population growth. Although it may seem convincing at first, the unwarranted assumptions lead me to question the validity of the argument.
Firstly, the author assumes that the consumption of heating oil will increase in the long run because, in the last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperature and climate forecasters predict this weather pattern will continue for several years. That’s why they hastily conclude that a client should spend money on the Industries. It is possible that the prediction by weather forecasters is incorrect because the region experienced the cold weather at first last year, which means that weather forecasters do not have much information for an exact prediction. With the bad reputation on prediction, the weather pattern would not continue for several years. Also, even if the prediction from weather forecasters is correct, the temperature might not be serious to people in the region. The region is located in the northeastern United States, which means that citizens are not sensitive to cold and they can stand cold weather. Hence, despite the change to low temperature, people would not purchase extra heating oil.
Second, another assumption the author makes it that client should invest in Consolidated Industries, which sells home heating oil. The reason is that many new homes are built in the region because of population growth, so she expects that lots of oil will be needed by new residents. However, new apartments might install a new heating system with solar-powered heating rather than with the traditional heating oil because old heating oil is more expensive than new energy and it pollutes the environment deadly. These drawbacks lead new residents not to use the old energy system, which indicates that investing in the industries which provide traditional oil might not be a good idea for clients.
Lastly, the author falsely assumes that demand for heating oil in the region would be improved, so she recommends spending money on the Consolidated Industries to her client. The reason why she recommends the investment is that weather patterns will continue for many years and lots of new residents will use traditional heating oil. However, the author should provide more information to persuade her clients such as past performance of the company, present sales statics, and other competitors in the market. Without such information, the client cannot decide whether her investment would be wise. In addition, if the demand for oil would be predicted to increase, other companies, whose major business operation is the wholesale of factories heating oil, would start to compete. This means that the competitiveness of the Consolidated Industries might be lower than before, so the client might not invest in the company.
In conclusion, the author states that a client has to invest in the Consolidated Industries is invalid. To bolster the argument, she should reconsider other possibilities of continuing cold weather patterns, increasing demand for heating oil in the region.
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Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.5 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 22 15
No. of Words: 534 350
No. of Characters: 2777 1500
No. of Different Words: 216 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.807 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.2 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.776 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 221 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 161 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 98 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 74 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 24.273 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 8.593 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.682 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.346 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.529 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.149 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, finally, first, firstly, hence, however, if, may, second, so, as to, in conclusion, such as
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 20.0 19.6327345309 102% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 25.0 12.9520958084 193% => OK
Conjunction : 6.0 11.1786427146 54% => More conjunction wanted.
Relative clauses : 23.0 13.6137724551 169% => OK
Pronoun: 35.0 28.8173652695 121% => Less pronouns wanted
Preposition: 54.0 55.5748502994 97% => OK
Nominalization: 21.0 16.3942115768 128% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2840.0 2260.96107784 126% => OK
No of words: 532.0 441.139720559 121% => OK
Chars per words: 5.33834586466 5.12650576532 104% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.80261649409 4.56307096286 105% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.84653501704 2.78398813304 102% => OK
Unique words: 230.0 204.123752495 113% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.432330827068 0.468620217663 92% => More unique words wanted or less content wanted.
syllable_count: 843.3 705.55239521 120% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 6.0 4.96107784431 121% => OK
Article: 13.0 8.76447105788 148% => OK
Subordination: 3.0 2.70958083832 111% => OK
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 7.0 4.22255489022 166% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 22.0 19.7664670659 111% => OK
Sentence length: 24.0 22.8473053892 105% => OK
Sentence length SD: 54.7944317615 57.8364921388 95% => OK
Chars per sentence: 129.090909091 119.503703932 108% => OK
Words per sentence: 24.1818181818 23.324526521 104% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.40909090909 5.70786347227 77% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 0.0 5.25449101796 0% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 10.0 8.20758483034 122% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 6.0 6.88822355289 87% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 6.0 4.67664670659 128% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.289679027502 0.218282227539 133% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0991856227288 0.0743258471296 133% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.074582770429 0.0701772020484 106% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.177514619019 0.128457276422 138% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0184875431474 0.0628817314937 29% => Paragraphs are similar to each other. Some content may get duplicated or it is not exactly right on the topic.
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 15.8 14.3799401198 110% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 47.12 48.3550499002 97% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 12.7 12.197005988 104% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.99 12.5979740519 111% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.39 8.32208582834 101% => OK
difficult_words: 120.0 98.500998004 122% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 15.0 12.3882235529 121% => OK
gunning_fog: 11.6 11.1389221557 104% => OK
text_standard: 9.0 11.9071856287 76% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.