The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing."Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high quality wool fabric, we discontinued productio

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The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.
"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has increased in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase."

In this argument, the author attempts to predict that resuming the production of alpaca overcoat can significantly facilitate the profit of his company. This assertion is based on an expectation of their coat selling well since the five-year pause of offering alpaca overcoat have raised customer's demand for it, the assumption that customers are willing to pay a higher price for their product as well as the prescription that prosperity on sale will undoubtedly increase the profit of his company. Whereas, lacking in convincing evidence in support of the assumptions, the validity of this argumen...

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