The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing."Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high quality wool fabric, we discontinued productio

The aforementioned argument is well-presented and appears to be relatively sound at first glance: since the Sartorian did not sell alpaca overcoats for five years, it seems persuasive for the company to resume its production. However, as more light is shed on the issue and more detailed facts are concerned, the lack of concrete evidence leads me to question the validity of the argument.

First of all, the author needs to provide more evidence on the economic condition of the five years ago and present. The author hastily believes that the alpaca coats would be popular since the company discontinued to produce alpaca coats five years ago. However, it should be noted the difference in economic conditions in the region might alter people’s purchasing behavior. It is plausible that the overcoat sold very well five years ago since the economy during the time was stable. However, currently, due to the adverse economic situation, people might strap for cash and would not be able to afford the alpaca overcoat. If this would be the case, the author’s expectation on high sales can be weakened.

In addition, the author should supplement the argument with more information on the pent-up demand of alpaca overcoats. Without detailed information on the customer’s interest on the alpaca overcoat, the author argues that there will be continuous demand in alpaca overcoats. However, it is possible that other companies could have provided alpaca overcoats so that customers no longer want to buy the overcoat. Also, since the fashion trend is rapidly changing, the alpaca coat might be outdated. In such a case, the coat will not be famous among people, and it is illogical to produce it. Thus, more valid information is required to verify the demand of alpaca overcoats.

Lastly, more concrete evidence on the soundness of the conclusion that the company’s profits will increase should be provided. Since the author believes in high sales on alpaca overcoats, he rashly concludes that the profits of Sartorian will rise in the future. However, the author should take into account that the profits depend not only on the sales of the overcoat but also on the sales of overall men’s clothing. In other words, despite of significant sales of alpaca overcoats, if the overall sales of other portions of clothing decrease, the company may not yield a myriad of benefits. Moreover, the author should also consider the price of a new fabric. If the cost of the fabric is exorbitant and the expense of the company tremendously increases, the profits may not increase. Therefore, the author should provide more evidence to bolster the credibility of the conclusion.

To sum up, the argument is not cogent in many respects. To strengthen the argument, the author should corroborate the economic condition of the past and current, the demand of the alpaca overcoat, and soundness of the conclusion.