The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing."Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulty obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of

The new vice president of Sartorian suggests renewing production of high-quality alpaca coats. This step supposedly should inescapably lead to increase in company's revenue. The prediction is buttressed by evidence which should be carefully questioned in order to estimate the soundness of the conclusion.

To begin with, the arguer claims that five years ago when Sartorian had to stop producing its alpaca coats some customers gave the outcry. However, how big this number of the customers who complained about the alteration was? Probably only a small number of loyal clients gave this sign of disagreement. Moreover, even if we assume that this number of customers is significant, probably their attitude has changed since the alteration took place five years ago. For example, their preferences may change and today they prefer to wear other kind of clothes. Furthermore, today's societies heavily promote usage of ecologically friendly synthetic materials which production brings no harm to nature and animals. Thus the writer's belief is unwarranted.

The second evidence is that none of company's rivals offers a comparable product. The originator assumes that thus the demand should skyrocket; however, the probability exists that no demand exists and therefore no competition exists as well. The writer might have made the argument stronger had he given us results of recent surveys to prove that demand on this kind of overcoat is strong and significant.

Finally, the argument claims that production of Sartorian overcoats will be more lucrative than before. It is said that average prices on clothing has increased. However, the very nature of the average may hide some problems. For instance, the likeliness exists that costs of expensive and exclusive clothing items like Sartorian coat has dropped dramatically but price on mundane clothes has augmented strikingly. In this case, despite the overall increase of clothing price the author's statement is unwarranted and perhaps these alpaca coats would be sold cheaper then before. What is more, the writer tends to neglect inflation which may be the real cause of the rise of prices. In this case, the increase of costs of items will not bring expected revenue. The cost of material is not discussed by the writer as well. But in reality it may be much higher than it used to be. Consequently, the writer's belief in profitability of the proposal is highly questionable.

In conclusion, the writer's prediction that restoration of production of alpaca coats will be lucrative is based on evidence which we have just proved unwarranted thus author's prediction is weak and infirm.