The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client."Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that

The author suggests that an investment be made in Consolidated Industries whose major business operation is the retail sale of home heating oil. He suggests so, due to the trending changes. Although the argument seems convincing at a first glance, the author fails to address many questions which might weaken the argument.

Firstly, the author assumes that people would need heat to survive through the winters during which the temperatures are below average. But, are the temperatures low enough that people would adopt heating methods? Maybe over the years people might have become accustomed to their environment and a little decrease in temperatures is bearable by them. Thus investment into Consolidated Industries might be unnecessary.

Secondly, author says that many new homes would be coming up and hence there be an increase in oil demand. But the author fails to provide us with proper statistics which would reflect by how much percentage or by what rate, the number of houses would increase. If the numbers aren't high then there wouldn't be a need to invest extra money for oil as the present amount of oil inthe city might be sufficient to satisfy the needs of the upcoming homes.

Furthermore, author fails to tell us if all the houses in Northeastern Unites States would be using oil as their major fuel for heating purposes. There might be only a few families which have been traditionally using oil. And many of them might be adopting other techniques for heating their houses. Author also fails to tell us about the oil rates in their area. If the oil rates are high, then people would prefer other fuel other than oil for heating their homes, as they might not be able to afford the high cost oil. They might be using wood instead of oil, as wood is cheap for them and available easily.

The author has failed to answer if the Consolidated Industries could keep providing oil to satisfy the ever increasing number of homes and their demand for oil. The amount of oil might start depleting and thus the industry might not afford to provide oil due to scarcity. Then in such cases investment into such companies might be useful for a short period of time and then the increasing demand for oil won't be met.

Thus, the author could strengthen his argument by addressing the above questions and can decide if such investment would be necessary.