The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company."Several recent surveys indicate that home owners are increasingly eager to conserve energy. At the same time, manufacturers are now marketing many home appli

The forecast of the planning department appears reasonable as the central claim is that because new energy efficient appliances are emerging, electricity consumption would decrease. The conclusion is however flawed because consumers may not buy these new products. Also the department’s association of presumed decline in energy consumption to the construction of new generating plants is weak as it fails to consider other factors that may cause an increase in demand.

First, the survey may have relied on self-reports which are not reliable. What people do and say may be different.Thus, the department’s assumption that consumers would buy the new energy efficient appliances because surveys show their eagerness to conserve energy is flawed. The existence of these products does not translate to sales thus forecasting electricity consumption on this premise weakens the department’s argument.

Another assumption of the department is that people may switch to better home insulation systems. This assumption is faulty because consumers may be unwilling to change to unknown products and these new products may be too expensive for them thereby causing them to continue with their curren enrgy consumption. If the departments can show that the new systems have competitive rates to the current cost of energy consumption by residents, the claim may be valid. Otherwise, the claim weakens their arguments.

Furthermore, the department draws a weak correlation between the premises and the conclusion. The department fails to show why new plants should not be generated. If the current plants meet the needs of the area, what happens if there is migration into the area? To substiante the conclusion the department needs to provide cogent reasons against the construction of a new generating plant.

In conclusion forecasting with the unconvincing proofs may result in losses for the plant. The planning department needs show that the company may experience a decline because residents in the area have been purchasing energy efficient appliances or that the appliances are actually as efficient as is claimed.