The following recommendation appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell."Two years ago, the nearby town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new bu

The author here argues that building a new golf course and a resort hotel would result in an increase in Hopewell’s economy, since a similar course of action resulted in an increase of tourism, business and tax revenues in the nearby town of Ocean View. Stated in this way, the author fails to mention and substantiate some of the key assumptions behind his abstruse logic, making the argument replete with several instances of poor reasoning. For example, although the town of Ocean View is nearby, it may still at a geographically advantageous location conducive to the growth of tourism. Thus can infer that the author’s argument is incomplete in its current form.

The example stated previously- the advantageous location of Ocean View may be the decisive factor behind the recent surge of tourist. Even, the name of town itself suggests that it is located at a close proximity to an ocean. Increase in tourism might simply be a concomitant result of possessing such a scenic advantage. If only the mayor could cite reasons to prove that Hopewell enjoys a similar iconic setting, one could conclude that constructing a golf course and a resort hotel would be equally productive, in terms of promoting tourism and thereby improving the economy of Hopewell.

Secondly, the mayor tries to correlate the construction of the golf course and the resort hotel to the recent increase in business at Ocean View. However, the exact relationship between such establishments and the sprout of business remains unexamined. The mayor does not state whether the golf course and the resort hotel were the only two structures built at Ocean View within the preceding two years. It may so happen that several new industries, technological or management firms have set up branches at Ocean View which might be considered as the valid reason behind the growth of business prevalent there. Thus in absence of any such evidence, so definitive conclusion can be drawn about the extent of influence of the golf course and the resort hotel on the recent economic growth in Ocean View.

Furthermore, the mayor makes another extraneous assumption when he suggests that introduction of golf course and the resort hotel will lead to an increase in tax revenue generated at Hopewell. It is true that tax revenue indeed increased by 30% within the last two years at Ocean View, coincidental with the construction of the golf course and the hotel, but the evidence in favor of a harmonious interrelationship between the two events is non- existent. Increase in tax revenue may be incurred by a variety of other independent factors, for example by increasing the percentage of chargeable service taxes. If such a change in taxation policy occurred in Ocean View within the last two years, it might better explain the related growth in tax revenue.

In conclusion one might infer that the mayor’s argument, in it current form, is unpersuasive. Some of the pertinent questions raised above needs to be answered first in order to determine whether the establishment of the new golf course and the resort will indeed alleviate the economic concerns of Hopewell.