The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil."Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for he

The author of the memo has prescient extrapolation on an increased demand for heating oil for the next five years to offset the chilling winter in the rising homes of northeastern states. While it may be true that the typical winter temperature is below-average, the memo is deluge with assumptions and predictions.

Firstly, the author has not implied about the authority of the climate forecasters because if the climate forecasters were naïve or tyro in their field then the predictions would take a wrong turn. For example, in a country like Nepal, there had been several predictions related to earthquake by so-called Great “Yogis” or “Baba” - since it lies in earthquake prone region, but the predictions has gone into vain as not-a-single major jolt has felt lately. Therefore, no conclusion can be drawn based upon the mere prediction, without a clear authorization of weather forecasters.

Likewise, the author has mentioned that the new homes are being constructed to satiate the habitat of the looming population in the region; however, the memo has not hinted anything about the usage of alternative energy because as the homes are being built in recent time, it may have implemented the heavy use of alternative energy equipments such as solar-panels, rotors for wind-power energy or hydro-power (electricity) citing the recent climate change due to the great use of oil or fossil-fuel usage.

As lately, most of the offices, colleges, homes, car, or industries are transforming into environment-friendly energy, the recent homes being built in northeastern parts of US could have utilized such sources of alternative energy; as government are interested in providing more subsidies to such practices rather than the oil-usage.

Finally, in order to draw a conclusion, the board of directors should be more cautious while at crux as they need to review the license of the climate forecasters and also they need to operate an exploration for the utilization of source of alternative energy in the newly built home; because they cannot simply go ahead with vacuous predictions for the next five years or more.