Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
The following appeared in a memo from the new Vice President of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.
"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulty obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our popular alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. Given the outcry from our customers when we discontinued this product and the fact that none of our competitors offers a comparable product, we can expect pent-up consumer demand for our alpaca coats. Due to this demand and the overall increase in clothing prices, we can predict that Sartorian's alpaca overcoats will be more profitable than ever before."
The recommends that the Sartorian company must resume production of the alpaca overcoat in order to gain huge profits from their sale. The author presumes that there will be an overwhelming response to the product, assuming that there is no other comparable product in the market been offered by the competitors. Although the author's argument does not seem to be well through and neglects several possibilities.
Firstly, the author says that the company had discontinued the production of its popular alpaca overcoats because they had difficulty in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric. Now, as the company gets a new fabric supplier, they seem to resume production. As mentioned earlier, the reason for which the company had discontinued the production of the alpaca coats, was the lack of reliable supplies. Thus, the author glosses over many questions that need to be answered such as, what is the quality of the material given by the new supplier? Does the quality meet the needs of the company? At what price is the new supplier willing to give the material? Thus, it is important to know whether the cost of supplies has increased or not. Although the author has mentioned an increase in overall clothes prices if the cost of supplies also increases correspondingly and the profit margin remains the same. Then it will be incorrect to conclude that it is profitable for the company. Similarly, there are many questions that have not been answered.
Secondly, the author mentions that it has been five years since the company had discontinued the alpaca overcoats. Five year’s time is quite enough to change people's opinions and tastes. Further, the author mentions that there was an outcry among the customers due to the discontinuation in the production of the alpaca overcoats. But now it becomes very important to know when was the outcry among the people? as if the outcry was in very past then the people might have forgotten the overcoats and something new might be in fashion at present. This further raises the question, whether there is still demand for the alpaca overcoats in the market? If the demand for overcoats is seasonal or not? as most of the people prefer to use overcoats during winters.
Furthermore, the author tries to strengthen his argument by stating the fact that the other competitors can't offer a comparable product to the popular alpaca overcoats. Then it becomes important to understand why other competitors cannot offer a similar product. As it might be the case that the companies had started the production of product comparable to alpaca overcoat, and the response which they got for it was not good, and thus discontinued its production. Similarly, this might happen with the Sartorian company, hence one cannot expect pent-up consumer demand for the alpaca coats.
Thus, the author should not make any hasty decisions about the pent-up consumer demand for their alpaca coats and should consider the questions mentioned above. Also, it will be incorrect to predict that "Sartorian's alpaca overcoats will be more profitable than ever before" as there are many questions that need to be answered before predicting such cursory statements.
| Post date | Users | Rates | Link to Content |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-09-11 | Pranali11 | 66 | view |
| 2016-12-26 | amirbahman | 66 | view |
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Comments
Essay evaluations by e-grader
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 327, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...ffered by the competitors. Although the authors argument does not seem to be well throu...
^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 412, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: As
...w when was the outcry among the people? as if the outcry was in very past then the...
^^
Line 3, column 699, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: As
...emand for overcoats is seasonal or not? as most of the people prefer to use overco...
^^
Line 3, column 699, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[1]
Message: “as” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
...emand for overcoats is seasonal or not? as most of the people prefer to use overco...
^^
Line 3, column 761, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...prefer to use overcoats during winters. Furthermore, the author tries to strengt...
^^^^
Line 4, column 105, Rule ID: CANT[1]
Message: Did you mean 'can't' or 'cannot'?
Suggestion: can't; cannot
...ing the fact that the other competitors cant offer a comparable product to the popul...
^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, first, firstly, furthermore, hence, if, second, secondly, similarly, so, still, then, thus, well, such as
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 27.0 19.6327345309 138% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 15.0 12.9520958084 116% => OK
Conjunction : 10.0 11.1786427146 89% => OK
Relative clauses : 16.0 13.6137724551 118% => OK
Pronoun: 32.0 28.8173652695 111% => OK
Preposition: 58.0 55.5748502994 104% => OK
Nominalization: 11.0 16.3942115768 67% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2694.0 2260.96107784 119% => OK
No of words: 525.0 441.139720559 119% => OK
Chars per words: 5.13142857143 5.12650576532 100% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.78673985869 4.56307096286 105% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.75693740496 2.78398813304 99% => OK
Unique words: 235.0 204.123752495 115% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.447619047619 0.468620217663 96% => OK
syllable_count: 825.3 705.55239521 117% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 5.0 4.96107784431 101% => OK
Article: 9.0 8.76447105788 103% => OK
Subordination: 9.0 2.70958083832 332% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 3.0 1.67365269461 179% => OK
Preposition: 1.0 4.22255489022 24% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 27.0 19.7664670659 137% => OK
Sentence length: 19.0 22.8473053892 83% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 48.7052386746 57.8364921388 84% => OK
Chars per sentence: 99.7777777778 119.503703932 83% => OK
Words per sentence: 19.4444444444 23.324526521 83% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.2962962963 5.70786347227 75% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 6.0 5.25449101796 114% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 8.0 8.20758483034 97% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 11.0 6.88822355289 160% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 8.0 4.67664670659 171% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.145710627673 0.218282227539 67% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0411212326159 0.0743258471296 55% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0526040011832 0.0701772020484 75% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0935030197079 0.128457276422 73% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0499687486674 0.0628817314937 79% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 12.5 14.3799401198 87% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 52.19 48.3550499002 108% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 10.7 12.197005988 88% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 12.47 12.5979740519 99% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.71 8.32208582834 93% => OK
difficult_words: 104.0 98.500998004 106% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 11.5 12.3882235529 93% => OK
gunning_fog: 9.6 11.1389221557 86% => OK
text_standard: 13.0 11.9071856287 109% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 327, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...ffered by the competitors. Although the authors argument does not seem to be well throu...
^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 412, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: As
...w when was the outcry among the people? as if the outcry was in very past then the...
^^
Line 3, column 699, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: As
...emand for overcoats is seasonal or not? as most of the people prefer to use overco...
^^
Line 3, column 699, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[1]
Message: “as” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
...emand for overcoats is seasonal or not? as most of the people prefer to use overco...
^^
Line 3, column 761, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...prefer to use overcoats during winters. Furthermore, the author tries to strengt...
^^^^
Line 4, column 105, Rule ID: CANT[1]
Message: Did you mean 'can't' or 'cannot'?
Suggestion: can't; cannot
...ing the fact that the other competitors cant offer a comparable product to the popul...
^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, first, firstly, furthermore, hence, if, second, secondly, similarly, so, still, then, thus, well, such as
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 27.0 19.6327345309 138% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 15.0 12.9520958084 116% => OK
Conjunction : 10.0 11.1786427146 89% => OK
Relative clauses : 16.0 13.6137724551 118% => OK
Pronoun: 32.0 28.8173652695 111% => OK
Preposition: 58.0 55.5748502994 104% => OK
Nominalization: 11.0 16.3942115768 67% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2694.0 2260.96107784 119% => OK
No of words: 525.0 441.139720559 119% => OK
Chars per words: 5.13142857143 5.12650576532 100% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.78673985869 4.56307096286 105% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.75693740496 2.78398813304 99% => OK
Unique words: 235.0 204.123752495 115% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.447619047619 0.468620217663 96% => OK
syllable_count: 825.3 705.55239521 117% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 5.0 4.96107784431 101% => OK
Article: 9.0 8.76447105788 103% => OK
Subordination: 9.0 2.70958083832 332% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 3.0 1.67365269461 179% => OK
Preposition: 1.0 4.22255489022 24% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 27.0 19.7664670659 137% => OK
Sentence length: 19.0 22.8473053892 83% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 48.7052386746 57.8364921388 84% => OK
Chars per sentence: 99.7777777778 119.503703932 83% => OK
Words per sentence: 19.4444444444 23.324526521 83% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.2962962963 5.70786347227 75% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 6.0 5.25449101796 114% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 8.0 8.20758483034 97% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 11.0 6.88822355289 160% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 8.0 4.67664670659 171% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.145710627673 0.218282227539 67% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0411212326159 0.0743258471296 55% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0526040011832 0.0701772020484 75% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0935030197079 0.128457276422 73% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0499687486674 0.0628817314937 79% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 12.5 14.3799401198 87% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 52.19 48.3550499002 108% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 10.7 12.197005988 88% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 12.47 12.5979740519 99% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.71 8.32208582834 93% => OK
difficult_words: 104.0 98.500998004 106% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 11.5 12.3882235529 93% => OK
gunning_fog: 9.6 11.1389221557 86% => OK
text_standard: 13.0 11.9071856287 109% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.