60. The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
A firm provides investment advice for a client based on lots of reasons. However, many assumptions in the memo need to be dealt with by the firm to make its agreement more convincing.
Climate forecasters predict that the temperature in this country will still below the average even in the scorching hot season. Nevertheless, it’s difficult to know the climate forecasters’ background. It’s likely that they got master or doctor degree in atmospheric sciences, and did lots of research, which were approved or published by academia. However, it’s also likely that they just graduated from college and started to stay in lab. In this way, the data they collected wouldn’t be reliable. What’s more, it’s extremely hard to forecast the weather within 7 days accurately, let alone the long turn-climate.
Everyone has her own budget spending on oil or gas. Even if the temperature is quite low, there are still many ways to solve the thorny problem, such as wear more clothes and find the alternative natural resources. On the other hand, it sounds reasonable that increasing population causes lots of construction companies to build houses. However, once the housing price begins soaring, a big portion of people cannot afford to pay the rental or buy house. Consequently, they would choose to commute every day and get up early rather than bear immense debt only to have their own assets. Now, it’s evident that the demand for heating oil would not grow rapidly like their prediction.
It’s not necessarily true that there will be no other retail oiling companies trying to make profits due to the skyrocketing demand for heating oil. In this case, it’s no longer a wise choice to invest in this industry, and this company isn’t a monopoly anymore. Obviously, it’s risky to pour money into one industry when there are too many uncontrollable variables.
It still leaves a big space for the company to make its data more complete in order to convince their clients to invest.
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Comments
Essay evaluation report
----------------
argument 1 -- not OK
argument 2 -- not OK
argument 3 -- not exactly
----------------
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: ? out of 6
Category: Poor Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 18 15
No. of Words: 333 350
No. of Characters: 1600 1500
No. of Different Words: 214 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.272 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.805 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.555 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 111 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 77 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 48 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 34 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 18.5 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 5.241 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.5 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.265 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.512 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.048 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 3, column 1, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...make its agreement more convincing. Climate forecasters predict that the tem...
^^
Line 5, column 1, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...ly, let alone the long turn-climate. Everyone has her own budget spending on ...
^^
Line 7, column 1, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
... grow rapidly like their prediction. It's not necessarily true that ther...
^^
Line 9, column 1, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...e too many uncontrollable variables. It still leaves a big space for the comp...
^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, consequently, however, if, nevertheless, so, still, such as, on the other hand
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 7.0 19.6327345309 36% => More to be verbs wanted.
Auxiliary verbs: 6.0 12.9520958084 46% => OK
Conjunction : 9.0 11.1786427146 81% => OK
Relative clauses : 8.0 13.6137724551 59% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 23.0 28.8173652695 80% => OK
Preposition: 42.0 55.5748502994 76% => OK
Nominalization: 6.0 16.3942115768 37% => More nominalizations (nouns with a suffix like: tion ment ence ance) wanted.
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 1717.0 2260.96107784 76% => OK
No of words: 331.0 441.139720559 75% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.18731117825 5.12650576532 101% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.26537283232 4.56307096286 93% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.84235926929 2.78398813304 102% => OK
Unique words: 211.0 204.123752495 103% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.63746223565 0.468620217663 136% => OK
syllable_count: 534.6 705.55239521 76% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 3.0 4.96107784431 60% => OK
Article: 3.0 8.76447105788 34% => OK
Subordination: 1.0 2.70958083832 37% => OK
Conjunction: 2.0 1.67365269461 119% => OK
Preposition: 3.0 4.22255489022 71% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 18.0 19.7664670659 91% => OK
Sentence length: 18.0 22.8473053892 79% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 29.526928492 57.8364921388 51% => The essay contains lots of sentences with the similar length. More sentence varieties wanted.
Chars per sentence: 95.3888888889 119.503703932 80% => OK
Words per sentence: 18.3888888889 23.324526521 79% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.66666666667 5.70786347227 82% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 4.0 5.25449101796 76% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 6.0 8.20758483034 73% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 7.0 6.88822355289 102% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 5.0 4.67664670659 107% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.181417752556 0.218282227539 83% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0585593315948 0.0743258471296 79% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0642076889729 0.0701772020484 91% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.10890561496 0.128457276422 85% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0290150305046 0.0628817314937 46% => Paragraphs are similar to each other. Some content may get duplicated or it is not exactly right on the topic.
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 12.2 14.3799401198 85% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 53.21 48.3550499002 110% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 10.3 12.197005988 84% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 12.82 12.5979740519 102% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.92 8.32208582834 107% => OK
difficult_words: 92.0 98.500998004 93% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 8.5 12.3882235529 69% => OK
gunning_fog: 9.2 11.1389221557 83% => OK
text_standard: 9.0 11.9071856287 76% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 50.0 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.0 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.