The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Ballmer Island Gazette On Balmer Island where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation the population increases to 100 000 during the summer months To reduce the number of accidents involving

While it might be plausible that the moped rental should be limited in order to reduce the accidents involving moped and pedestrians. It has no concrete evidence to witness the effectiveness of this practice. Although it is comprehensible that Seaville achieved the goal through the same method, so the author would like to get the same result by emulating Seaville. It is still rife with a myriad of questions which should be addressed before the author proves the validity of the argument.

To begin with, the author assumes that all other conditions in Balmer that might affect that rate of moped-pedestrian accidents will remain unchanged after the restrictions are enacted. People often find ways to circumvent restrictions. For example, with a restricted supply of rental mopeds, people in Balmer who currently rent in the summer might purchase mopeds instead. Also, the number of pedestrians might increase in the future. With more pedestrians, especially tourists, the risk of moped-pedestrian accidents would probably increase. For that matter, the number of rental outlets might increase to make up for the artificial supply restriction per outlet, a likely scenario in consideration of the fact that moped rental demand will not likely decrease. Without considering and ruling out these and other possible changes that might contribute to a high incidence of moped-pedestrian accidents, the author cannot convince me that the proposed restrictions will necessarily have the desired effect.

Next, the author fails to consider other possible explanations for the 50 percentage decline in Seavilles moped accident rate last year. Perhaps last year Seaville exoerienced unusually fair weather, during which moped accidents are less likely. Perhaps fewer tourists visited Seaville last year than during most years, thereby reducing demand for rental mopeds to levels even below the allowed limits. Perhaps last year some of Seaville’s moped rental outlets purchased new mopeds that are safer to drive. Or perhaps the restrictions were already in effect but were not enforced until last year. In any event, a decline in Seaville’s moped accident rate during only one year is scarcely sufficient to draw any reliable conclusions about what might have caused the decline, or about what the accident rate will be in years ahead.

To further explore the link between the two locations and a reduction in number of accidents, the author relies on what could be an unfair comparison. Perhaps Balmer’s ability to enforce moped-rental restrictions does not meet Seaville’s ability.In that case, the mere enactment of similar restrictions in Balmer is no guarantee of a similar result. Or perhaps the demand for mopeds in Seaville is always greater than in Balmer. Specifically, if fewer than all available mopeds are currently rented per day from the average Balmer outlet, while in Seaville everyavailable moped is rented each day, then the proposed restriction is likely to have less impact on the accident rate in Balmer than in Seaville.

Finally, the author provides no evidence that the same restrictions that served to reduce the incidence of all "moped accidents" by 50% would also serve to reduce the incidence of "accidents involving moped accidents not involving pedestrians decreased by a greater percentage, while the number of moped-pedestrian accidents decreased by a smaller percentage, or even increased. Since the author has not accounted for these possibilities, the recommendation requires further substantiation.

In conclusion, the recommendation is not well-supported. To convince an audience that the proposed restriction would achieve the desired outcome the author needs to establish that no changes serving to increase Balmer’s moped-pedestrian accident rate will occur in the foreseeable future. The author must also provide clear evidence that last year’s decline in moped accidents in Seaville was attributable primarily to its moped rental restrictions rather than to one or more other factors. In order to better evaluate the recommendation, an audience would need more information comparing the supply of and demand for moped rentals on the two islands. An audience would also need to know the rates of moped-pedestrian accidents in Seaville, both prior to and after the restrictions were enforced in Seaville.