The following memorandum is from the president of Primo Doll Manufacturing, Inc.
"According to a survey last year of parents who purchased the Elkie, our most popular doll, 90 percent reported that although their children were extremely satisfied with the doll's features, the doll quickly wore out with use. In a follow-up survey of the same parents, 80 percent reported that they would recommend a more durable version of the doll to their friends. In response to these surveys, we have created the Elkie-Advanced Doll, which has similar features to the original Elkie Doll but is manufactured using the same higher quality materials used by Optima Doll Manufacturing, our most successful competitor. Because parents can now purchase the beloved Elkie doll and be sure that it won't quickly wear out with use, we predict that our profits will exceed those of Optima Doll Manufacturing this year."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
The present of the doll company assert that the business could be more lucrative as they produce dolls with higher quality and make it more durable, given that a survey which majorities complained about their doll is out of use soon, and 80% their parents would recommend them to friends if they can be more durable. However, this plausible rationcination has three questions to be answered to gauge its validity.
The first question is that if the survey is valid and representative. How do they collect the survey would cast doubuts on the conclusion. For instance, when facing a survey by email, majority will not respond to it, therefore the data is only collected is only by a small fraction of its users and the results drawn from such data can be highly biasd. Therefore, until the designer of the survey justified the credibility of the survey, it would be more salient to hold a skeptical view on its results.
Then another questions can be "is the fact that doll out of usage soon due to the quality of its material?". There are many reasonable explanations other than the material. One feasible answer can be that children are just feeling insipid after a transient interet when playing with such dool. In this case, they company are suggested to redesign this doll and make children's interest on the doll more longlasting. Then manufacturing doll with better material would only make their profit more scarce.
Even thought that the anwers for previous two questions favor the president's argument, it is still essential to ask if the extra revenue is outweighted its cost when making dolls with better material. Here we assumed that both old and new version dolls earns same amout of profits. Given that the profit constitutes two components, revenue and cost. If the results is that the production of better dolls cost much higher in totall cost, which is greater than the extra revenue it brings, then the company could only comfront the decline in its profit.
In conclusion, there are at least three questions to be answered before asserting the increasing profitability of the new doll.
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| 2023-08-28 | tomlee0205 | 63 | view |
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Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 12 2
No. of Sentences: 16 15
No. of Words: 357 350
No. of Characters: 1711 1500
No. of Different Words: 183 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.347 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.793 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.524 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 112 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 88 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 55 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 35 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 22.312 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 12.578 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.625 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.319 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.579 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.078 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 7, column 67, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[2]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'presidents'' or 'president's'?
Suggestion: presidents'; president's
...rs for previous two questions favor the presidents argument, it is still essential to ask ...
^^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
but, first, however, if, so, still, then, therefore, at least, for instance, in conclusion
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 22.0 19.6327345309 112% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 11.0 12.9520958084 85% => OK
Conjunction : 7.0 11.1786427146 63% => OK
Relative clauses : 14.0 13.6137724551 103% => OK
Pronoun: 32.0 28.8173652695 111% => OK
Preposition: 38.0 55.5748502994 68% => OK
Nominalization: 6.0 16.3942115768 37% => More nominalizations (nouns with a suffix like: tion ment ence ance) wanted.
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 1769.0 2260.96107784 78% => OK
No of words: 357.0 441.139720559 81% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 4.95518207283 5.12650576532 97% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.34677393335 4.56307096286 95% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.65216557182 2.78398813304 95% => OK
Unique words: 189.0 204.123752495 93% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.529411764706 0.468620217663 113% => OK
syllable_count: 535.5 705.55239521 76% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.5 1.59920159681 94% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 4.0 4.96107784431 81% => OK
Article: 2.0 8.76447105788 23% => OK
Subordination: 3.0 2.70958083832 111% => OK
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 3.0 4.22255489022 71% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 16.0 19.7664670659 81% => Need more sentences. Double check the format of sentences, make sure there is a space between two sentences, or have enough periods. And also check the lengths of sentences, maybe they are too long.
Sentence length: 22.0 22.8473053892 96% => OK
Sentence length SD: 67.9069906195 57.8364921388 117% => OK
Chars per sentence: 110.5625 119.503703932 93% => OK
Words per sentence: 22.3125 23.324526521 96% => OK
Discourse Markers: 5.625 5.70786347227 99% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 1.0 5.25449101796 19% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 9.0 8.20758483034 110% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 1.0 6.88822355289 15% => More negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 6.0 4.67664670659 128% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.194072995509 0.218282227539 89% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.065401683853 0.0743258471296 88% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0554482687571 0.0701772020484 79% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.113446452618 0.128457276422 88% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.046608001228 0.0628817314937 74% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 13.1 14.3799401198 91% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 57.61 48.3550499002 119% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 10.7 12.197005988 88% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 11.78 12.5979740519 94% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.53 8.32208582834 102% => OK
difficult_words: 86.0 98.500998004 87% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 11.0 12.3882235529 89% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.8 11.1389221557 97% => OK
text_standard: 11.0 11.9071856287 92% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 75.0 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.5 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.