The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.
"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulty obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our popular alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. Given the outcry from our customers when we discontinued this product and the fact that none of our competitors offers a comparable product, we can expect pent-up consumer demand for our alpaca coats. This demand and the overall increase in clothing prices will make Sartorian's alpaca overcoats more profitable than ever before."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The vice-president makes an argument for reviving a discontinued production of alpaca overcoat to make more profits. He provides reasoning in the form of availability of new fabric supplier, no comparable product by competitors, pent-up customer demand and overall price increases. However the argument makes a number of assumptions which can make it suspect.
Firstly, there is an assumption that new fabric supplier for alpa overcoat is reliable. In light of difficulties faced by the company earlier may due to rarity of the fabric, it is highly suspect that new fabric supplier is capable of delivering supplies on a continuous basis. There is no evidence stated in the argument that can reassure us regarding the same, such as any long term contract which has clause for penalties in case of default. Thus, the argument for renewing the production becomes feeble.
Secondly, there is an assumption that there is still demand for the alpa overcoat presently. This assumption is made on feeble grounds that there was outcry from customers when product was discontinued earlier and no comparable product from the competitors. There is no evidence that is presented regarding the pent-up demand. May be the customers have moved on from the product by finding cheaper alternatives though less quality from the competitors and they find them useful enough to meet their requirements. Unless the company conducts a survey regarding the demand, any assumptions can prove counter-productive for the company's profits due to lack of demand. If the survey results are favourable then they could go ahead.
Thirdly, there is an assumption that by introducing the alpa overcoat again the company can earn more profits due to overall increase in prices.However, there is no evidence regarding the cost of producing the alpa overcoat presently. Just because the overall prices of clothes have increased it does not mean it will result in more profits. Due to rarity of fabric, it may mean more input costs finally effecting the bottomline. Furthermore, there is assumption the demand will stay constant despite increase in prices of clothes. May be because of downturn in the economy customers may prefer cheaper clothes from competitors despite fall in the quality. This makes the argument to start production in hope for profits imprudent.
In conclusion, there are number of assumptions which are made which lack sufficient evidence to be warranted. Unless the company obtains additional information regarding reliability of supplies, conduct survey regarding the existing demand and give facts regarding costs involved, the argument rests on feeble grounds and is highly suspect.
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argument 1 -- OK
argument 2 -- OK
argument 3 -- OK
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Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 5.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 21 15
No. of Words: 423 350
No. of Characters: 2211 1500
No. of Different Words: 183 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.535 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.227 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.815 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 180 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 142 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 93 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 58 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 20.143 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 8.202 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.762 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.314 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.512 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.063 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5