The city council of Town X has proposed reducing the city s electric expenses by switching all the lights in public buildings from incandescent bulbs to light emitting diodes LEDs The switch would be made gradually as the old incandescent bulbs burn out a

The council proposes reducing electric expenses by changing from one type of light bulb to another over time. While the council provides two reasons why this could help to save money, only one is a potential support (the fact that the new bulbs burn more brightly). The other reason, that the LED bulbs cost no more to purchase, does not help to save money; rather, it only shows that the town will not spend
more money to purchase the bulbs. Further, the one supporting fact may or may not result in a cost savings we don’t have enough information to tell for sure. The initial cost to purchase the new bulbs is the same, but this is only one of the costs associated with lighting. The bulk of the cost is incurred over time, as the bulbs are used. Do the new bulbs use the same amount of electricity to run? The argument mentions that they’re brighter; perhaps they use more
energy? If so, then the electrical costs could actually increase over time, not decrease — the opposite of what the council expects. Further, do the new bulbs last as long as the old ones? If they last longer, then costs might decrease; if they burn out more quickly, however, then costs could increase.
The council’s plan is to replace the incandescent bulbs with the new LEDs over time, as the old ones burn out. Is it possible to make a direct replacement without incurring any extra costs? Will the new bulbs fit into the old fixtures, and do they use the same type of electrical connection? If not, there could be a significant cost associated with retrofitting the fixtures in order to accommodate the new type of bulb —
and that would be made more complicated by the plan to replace the bulbs gradually as they burn out. If one fixture has three incandescent bulbs, and one burns out, and if that fixture would need to be retrofitted in order to be able to take an LED, can you retrofit only one portion of the fixture? Likely not, so now, in addition to the cost of retrofitting, we will also be tossing out two perfectly good incandescent bulbs in
order to switch to LEDs.
Finally, are there any other drawbacks associated with switching from the old bulbs to the new that might add to the costs or reduce the efficacy of the new bulbs? For instance, perhaps the new lights, which burn more brightly, also emit a larger amount of heat, which might cause the building to have to increase the usage of air conditioning, thereby increasing electricity costs (albeit from a different source).
Possible unintended consequences need to be addressed before implementing such a plan, or the council might find itself with a surprise on its next electric bill.
The plan presented by the council includes just one piece of evidence intended to support the idea that electric costs will decrease, and even that piece of evidence is suspect (as we saw, the fact that the LEDs burn more brightly might mean that they actually use more energy!). While it may ultimately be the case that the plan is sound and will save Town X money, we cannot conclude this from the argument as it stands now. There are simply too many unexplored variables, including total cost, not just replacement cost, and possible drawbacks, including retrofitting or other unexpected consequences, that could actually Result in increased costs.