The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.
"Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because these developments will certainly result in an increased demand for heating oil, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
In this letter, the author recommends investment for Conslidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sales of residental heating oil, as the result of anticipated increasing demand of heating oil. To support his/her claim, the author quotes the climate forecasters at Waymarsh University and a mass of new houses are under construction in this region. Quite convincing though such recommendation appears, there actually exists several questions in the line of reasoning, that requires further analysis. And the author's recommendation could end up in pretty convincing or invalid, depending on the answers to the questions.
To start off, the author's recommendation heavily relies on the accuracy of weather prediction, a question that need further analysis. It is possible that such prediction is totally wrong, as the Earth has highly complex claim system and the University which led such observation might make flaw in process. Furthermore, without additional information, it's likely that northeasten America actually experiences a warmer winter. If it is true, the conclusion of harsh weather prediction fall into untenable and we can expect the increasing heating oil demand consequently. On the contrary, the weather's prediction could gain more weight and the author's recommendation will be strengthened.
Granted that winter climate would stay harsh and given the new houses are built in this region, whether the heating oil demand could raise up in response to harsh weather and increasing population needs a second look. Actually behind the author's conclusion lie two implications. The first one is that people would like to stay in the very region regardless of weather condition, which would be a unanswered question. However, the probability that people might migrate to a warmer region to eschew with bitter winter could be easily precluded, in the absence of sufficient information. Yet, if yes, the author's recommendation would lost weights; by constrast, the increasing population would gains great support to heating oil demand, and therefore the author's recommendation become seeming robust.
Furthermore, the second one is that heating oil will remain as the major fuel source for residental heating. While people in the past mainly depend on oil for their residental heating, the probability that new energy alternatives could not be precluded in advance. It's likely that the new heating approaches powered by solar or nuclear energy could enter market and compete with oil fuel. If it's true, we could somehow question if the oil headling demain could coincide with the increasing residental heating requirement. On the contrary, the increasing heating oil demand could be expected from the robust heating demand from local, creating favorable market for Consolidated industries.
While the heating oil demand could be expected from both severe winter weather and increasing population pressure, whether Consolidated Industries could play robust financial performance as the author assumes is still problematic. Other factors, such as management efficiency, could also restrict with its ultimate financial performance. If it is poorly managed and fraught with corruption, it's unreasonable for us to assume that Consolidated Industries could gain huge profit and worthy investment.
In summary, while inclement winter and population pressure provide huge potential to the increasing demand of heating oil, this is a conclusion that could be derived from the information mentioned in passage. Furthermore, given the increasing heating oil demand, we also don't have clues that Consolidated Industries could perform well as expect. Only after question aforementioned are adequately addressed can we efficiently draw a logically sound conclusion.
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Comments
Essay evaluation report
One argument lost:
Because these developments will certainly result in an increased demand for heating oil, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.
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Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 25 15
No. of Words: 574 350
No. of Characters: 3163 1500
No. of Different Words: 264 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.895 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.51 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.949 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 259 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 192 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 134 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 102 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 22.96 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 6.797 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.72 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.33 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.548 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.151 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 6 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 541, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...that requires further analysis. And the authors recommendation could end up in pretty c...
^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 19, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
... the questions. To start off, the authors recommendation heavily relies on the ac...
^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 593, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'weathers'' or 'weather's'?
Suggestion: weathers'; weather's
...mand consequently. On the contrary, the weathers prediction could gain more weight and t...
^^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 644, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...ediction could gain more weight and the authors recommendation will be strengthened. ...
^^^^^^^
Line 9, column 239, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...eeds a second look. Actually behind the authors conclusion lie two implications. The fi...
^^^^^^^
Line 9, column 395, Rule ID: EN_A_VS_AN
Message: Use 'an' instead of 'a' if the following word starts with a vowel sound, e.g. 'an article', 'an hour'
Suggestion: an
...ss of weather condition, which would be a unanswered question. However, the proba...
^
Line 9, column 603, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...ufficient information. Yet, if yes, the authors recommendation would lost weights; by c...
^^^^^^^
Line 9, column 632, Rule ID: DID_BASEFORM[1]
Message: The verb 'would' requires the base form of the verb: 'lose'
Suggestion: lose
...f yes, the authors recommendation would lost weights; by constrast, the increasing p...
^^^^
Line 9, column 692, Rule ID: DID_BASEFORM[1]
Message: The verb 'would' requires the base form of the verb: 'gain'
Suggestion: gain
...strast, the increasing population would gains great support to heating oil demand, an...
^^^^^
Line 9, column 753, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...o heating oil demand, and therefore the authors recommendation become seeming robust. ...
^^^^^^^
Line 21, column 272, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: don't
... increasing heating oil demand, we also dont have clues that Consolidated Industries...
^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
actually, also, consequently, first, furthermore, however, if, look, second, so, still, then, therefore, well, while, in summary, such as, it is true, on the contrary
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 19.0 19.6327345309 97% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 27.0 12.9520958084 208% => Less auxiliary verb wanted.
Conjunction : 15.0 11.1786427146 134% => OK
Relative clauses : 16.0 13.6137724551 118% => OK
Pronoun: 33.0 28.8173652695 115% => OK
Preposition: 61.0 55.5748502994 110% => OK
Nominalization: 34.0 16.3942115768 207% => Less nominalizations (nouns with a suffix like: tion ment ence ance) wanted.
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 3247.0 2260.96107784 144% => OK
No of words: 572.0 441.139720559 130% => OK
Chars per words: 5.67657342657 5.12650576532 111% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.89045207381 4.56307096286 107% => OK
Word Length SD: 3.02926174507 2.78398813304 109% => OK
Unique words: 274.0 204.123752495 134% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.479020979021 0.468620217663 102% => OK
syllable_count: 977.4 705.55239521 139% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.7 1.59920159681 106% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 8.0 4.96107784431 161% => OK
Article: 13.0 8.76447105788 148% => OK
Subordination: 9.0 2.70958083832 332% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 2.0 1.67365269461 119% => OK
Preposition: 9.0 4.22255489022 213% => Less preposition wanted as sentence beginnings.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 25.0 19.7664670659 126% => OK
Sentence length: 22.0 22.8473053892 96% => OK
Sentence length SD: 41.4604196795 57.8364921388 72% => OK
Chars per sentence: 129.88 119.503703932 109% => OK
Words per sentence: 22.88 23.324526521 98% => OK
Discourse Markers: 6.64 5.70786347227 116% => OK
Paragraphs: 6.0 5.15768463074 116% => OK
Language errors: 11.0 5.25449101796 209% => Less language errors wanted.
Sentences with positive sentiment : 16.0 8.20758483034 195% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 6.0 6.88822355289 87% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 3.0 4.67664670659 64% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.113423740211 0.218282227539 52% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0376311638293 0.0743258471296 51% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0391799511644 0.0701772020484 56% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0664669460709 0.128457276422 52% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0334586158889 0.0628817314937 53% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 16.8 14.3799401198 117% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 40.69 48.3550499002 84% => OK
smog_index: 11.2 7.1628742515 156% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 13.1 12.197005988 107% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 15.96 12.5979740519 127% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.92 8.32208582834 107% => OK
difficult_words: 152.0 98.500998004 154% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 15.0 12.3882235529 121% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.8 11.1389221557 97% => OK
text_standard: 11.0 11.9071856287 92% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.