The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Grounding on the weather forecast and many newly built home, the author of this letter supposes that the demand of heating oil will grow steadily in the coming years in the northeastern United States. Then by synthesizing the hypotheses that the need of heating oil will represent on the revenue of Consolidated Industries, the author accordingly suggests that the investment in this company will be profitable. However, the argument rests on several unwarranted assumptions and therefore is unpersuasive as it stands.
To begin with, citing the temperature records in the past three months and the predication of future climate made by the forecaster, the author asserts that the weather pattern is likely to be continued. This may be true. However, it is difficult and hardly reliable to make a long-term predication simply based on the record of last year. Even talking about the weather tomorrow, weather forecast can change dramatically, not to mention the weather years after. To make the assumption more convincing, hard numbers and rigorous statistics of the past weather are required before predicting any trend.
Furthermore, the statement mentioned that newly built houses are likely to add on the demand of the heating oil. In fact, this assumption is based on that people still use heating oil to combat coldness in today's life. While it is possible that this tradition passes on in the northeastern area, newly built home may choose heating facility that is more energy-efficient and environmental friendly. If this scenario is true, the demand of heating oil may drop dramatically after the people of the old house notice the benefit of applying new technology. Hence, more information of the new house is needed to strengthen the argument.
After all, it is generally accepted that investing in a single company is risky and not recommended. We need to ask why Consolidated was specifically recommended. Does this company have other business that is in the red? Does the company perform best comparing to its competitors? Is it likely to stay the course over the next decade or so? Oil prices fluctuate frequently with the global economy, so does the profit of the oil company. The author fails to provide more details of Consolidated Industries to make the investment suggestion compelling.
In the final analysis, unless the author provide more evidence to substantiate these assumptions, the investment is likely to be a risky one.
| Post date | Users | Rates | Link to Content |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-15 | Ifthekhar | 53 | view |
| 2023-07-23 | shubham1102 | 58 | view |
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Comments
e-rater score report
Sentence: To begin with, citing the temperature records in the past three months and the predication of future climate made by the forecaster, the author asserts that the weather pattern is likely to be continued.
Description: A preposition is not usually followed by a comma
Suggestion: Refer to with and ,
Sentence: Even talking about the weather tomorrow, weather forecast can change dramatically, not to mention the weather years after.
Description: A preposition is not usually followed by a sentence terminator
Suggestion: Refer to after
Sentence: If this scenario is true, the demand of heating oil may drop dramatically after the people of the old house notice the benefit of applying new technology.
Description: The fragment house notice the is rare
Suggestion: Possible agreement error: Replace notice with verb, past tense
Sentence: Is it likely to stay the course over the next decade or so?
Description: The fragment it likely to is rare
Suggestion: Possible agreement error: Replace likely with adjective
Sentence: The author fails to provide more details of Consolidated Industries to make the investment suggestion compelling.
Description: A noun, singular, common is not usually followed by an adjective
Suggestion: Refer to suggestion and compelling
Sentence: In the final analysis, unless the author provide more evidence to substantiate these assumptions, the investment is likely to be a risky one.
Description: The fragment author provide more is rare
Suggestion: Possible agreement error: Replace provide with verb, present tense, 3rd person singular
Sentence: However, the argument rests on several unwarranted assumptions and therefore is unpersuasive as it stands.
Error: unpersuasive Suggestion: No alternate word
Error: unwarranted Suggestion: No alternate word
Sentence: This may be true.
Error: may Suggestion: No alternate word
Sentence: However, it is difficult and hardly reliable to make a long-term predication simply based on the record of last year.
Error: long-term Suggestion: longer
Sentence: While it is possible that this tradition passes on in the northeastern area, newly built home may choose heating facility that is more energy-efficient and environmental friendly.
Error: may Suggestion: No alternate word
Error: energy-efficient Suggestion: energy efficient
Sentence: If this scenario is true, the demand of heating oil may drop dramatically after the people of the old house notice the benefit of applying new technology.
Error: may Suggestion: No alternate word
flaws:
No. of Grammatical Errors: 6 2
Read a good grammar book.
No. of Spelling Errors: 5 2
Double check spelling errors.
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 6 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 5 2
No. of Sentences: 21 15
No. of Words: 397 350
No. of Characters: 2012 1500
No. of Different Words: 201 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.464 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.068 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.878 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 152 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 112 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 77 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 56 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 18.905 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 8.071 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.667 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.283 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.504 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.069 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 5, column 325, Rule ID: AFFORD_VBG[1]
Message: This verb is used with infinitive: 'to heat'.
Suggestion: to heat
...stern area, newly built home may choose heating facility that is more energy-efficient ...
^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
accordingly, furthermore, hence, however, if, may, so, still, then, therefore, while, after all, in fact, talking about, to begin with
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 20.0 19.6327345309 102% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 9.0 12.9520958084 69% => OK
Conjunction : 8.0 11.1786427146 72% => OK
Relative clauses : 10.0 13.6137724551 73% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 25.0 28.8173652695 87% => OK
Preposition: 58.0 55.5748502994 104% => OK
Nominalization: 15.0 16.3942115768 91% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2068.0 2260.96107784 91% => OK
No of words: 397.0 441.139720559 90% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.20906801008 5.12650576532 102% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.46372701284 4.56307096286 98% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.95318539656 2.78398813304 106% => OK
Unique words: 204.0 204.123752495 100% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.513853904282 0.468620217663 110% => OK
syllable_count: 649.8 705.55239521 92% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 5.0 4.96107784431 101% => OK
Article: 8.0 8.76447105788 91% => OK
Subordination: 4.0 2.70958083832 148% => OK
Conjunction: 0.0 1.67365269461 0% => OK
Preposition: 5.0 4.22255489022 118% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 21.0 19.7664670659 106% => OK
Sentence length: 18.0 22.8473053892 79% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 51.2729568074 57.8364921388 89% => OK
Chars per sentence: 98.4761904762 119.503703932 82% => OK
Words per sentence: 18.9047619048 23.324526521 81% => OK
Discourse Markers: 6.38095238095 5.70786347227 112% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 1.0 5.25449101796 19% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 9.0 8.20758483034 110% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 8.0 6.88822355289 116% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 4.0 4.67664670659 86% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.146233157785 0.218282227539 67% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0402498135188 0.0743258471296 54% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0453642885403 0.0701772020484 65% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0780753294815 0.128457276422 61% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0523639460593 0.0628817314937 83% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 12.6 14.3799401198 88% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 53.21 48.3550499002 110% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 10.3 12.197005988 84% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 12.94 12.5979740519 103% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.71 8.32208582834 105% => OK
difficult_words: 105.0 98.500998004 107% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 15.0 12.3882235529 121% => OK
gunning_fog: 9.2 11.1389221557 83% => OK
text_standard: 9.0 11.9071856287 76% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 58.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.5 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.