The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The author of the letter concluded that the demand for heating oil will increase in the future and he suggested to invest in Consolidated industries, as one of the major business operation of these firms is to retail sale of home heating oil. In making his conclusion, he presented the following as evidence: the region experienced a90 days below- normal temperatures and it is likely to continue for several years according to the forecasts made by the meteorological experts, and the increased housing because of population growth. However, the author’s assumptions are flawed for three reasons.
First of all, the author’s conclusion is based on a mere prediction of climate experts, and we all know that climate is unpredictable and it tend to change over time. Moreover, global warming can drastically change the weather and climate of a certain are. For example, the area mentioned in the prompt could be affected by climate change and transformed into an area where winter will be too short and temperature will be manageable, which will inevitably abolished the need for heating the houses. If this is true, then it will at best weaken the author’s argument.
Secondly, even if the climate forecasts are true, how can we determine the number of years? It could remain for one year, two year or even for decades. For example, if the trend continues for only one or two years, it will be a loss project if a huge investment is made. On the other hand, if it the trend is going to continue for a decade, the firm might earn some profit. However, to make any investment based on this dichotomy will be unwise. Therefore, the firm need to observe the situation for some years and then it should decide whether to make investment or not.
Finally, the author speculated that the new housing will also use home heating oil for maintaining warm temperature in the winter. But what if they focus on more sophisticated technology for heating their home. For example, their home may be equipped with electric room heater. Even, some may use ancient system of burning wood for increasing the temperature. In either of the case, the demand for home heating oil will not rise. Therefore, the assumption of the author is proven wrong.
To sum up, it can be said that the author’s conclusion is based on some unwarranted assumption and the arguments as they stand now is flawed. The author needs to clarify the aforementioned issues before making any extrapolation.
| Post date | Users | Rates | Link to Content |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-15 | Ifthekhar | 53 | view |
| 2023-07-23 | shubham1102 | 58 | view |
| 2022-08-28 | nipuntestbig | 78 | view |
| 2022-06-12 | Ahmed.I | 58 | view |
| 2022-05-23 | anon7652 | 66 | view |
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Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 5 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 4 2
No. of Sentences: 21 15
No. of Words: 419 350
No. of Characters: 1987 1500
No. of Different Words: 209 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.524 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.742 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.678 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 139 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 99 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 65 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 50 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 19.952 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 10.719 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.762 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.281 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.281 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.095 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 1 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 103, Rule ID: ADMIT_ENJOY_VB[1]
Message: This verb is used with the gerund form: 'suggested investing'.
Suggestion: suggested investing
... oil will increase in the future and he suggested to invest in Consolidated industries, as one of t...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 2, column 142, Rule ID: IT_VBZ[1]
Message: Did you mean 'tends'?
Suggestion: tends
...ow that climate is unpredictable and it tend to change over time. Moreover, global w...
^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, finally, first, however, if, may, moreover, second, secondly, so, then, therefore, for example, first of all, to sum up, on the other hand
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 20.0 19.6327345309 102% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 20.0 12.9520958084 154% => OK
Conjunction : 14.0 11.1786427146 125% => OK
Relative clauses : 6.0 13.6137724551 44% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 24.0 28.8173652695 83% => OK
Preposition: 43.0 55.5748502994 77% => OK
Nominalization: 12.0 16.3942115768 73% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2053.0 2260.96107784 91% => OK
No of words: 419.0 441.139720559 95% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 4.89976133652 5.12650576532 96% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.52432199235 4.56307096286 99% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.78486642425 2.78398813304 100% => OK
Unique words: 215.0 204.123752495 105% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.513126491647 0.468620217663 109% => OK
syllable_count: 651.6 705.55239521 92% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 5.0 4.96107784431 101% => OK
Article: 10.0 8.76447105788 114% => OK
Subordination: 5.0 2.70958083832 185% => OK
Conjunction: 3.0 1.67365269461 179% => OK
Preposition: 5.0 4.22255489022 118% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 21.0 19.7664670659 106% => OK
Sentence length: 19.0 22.8473053892 83% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 65.1656532099 57.8364921388 113% => OK
Chars per sentence: 97.7619047619 119.503703932 82% => OK
Words per sentence: 19.9523809524 23.324526521 86% => OK
Discourse Markers: 7.09523809524 5.70786347227 124% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 2.0 5.25449101796 38% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 8.0 8.20758483034 97% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 4.0 6.88822355289 58% => More negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 9.0 4.67664670659 192% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.24603837534 0.218282227539 113% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0806422593575 0.0743258471296 108% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0775869199634 0.0701772020484 111% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.139109188102 0.128457276422 108% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0987368918731 0.0628817314937 157% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 11.6 14.3799401198 81% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 52.19 48.3550499002 108% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 10.7 12.197005988 88% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 11.14 12.5979740519 88% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.97 8.32208582834 96% => OK
difficult_words: 90.0 98.500998004 91% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 14.0 12.3882235529 113% => OK
gunning_fog: 9.6 11.1389221557 86% => OK
text_standard: 12.0 11.9071856287 101% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.