The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating.
Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern
will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth.
Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain
how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
The author claims that due to the recent change in the temperatures in the north-eastern United States, where the temperatures are usually cold,
that there is a major consumption of oil used for heating. He also anecdotes the recent temperature changes observed in the for 90 days of the heating season,
in the region, which were below normal temperatures and that the climate forecasters view this change as a predicament to the weather pattern would be
dropping. But the claim made by the author skips on some critical points which would not support his stand.
Firstly, the authour states that most homes in the northeastern states in the unites States are consuming oil as a fuel for heating.
He does not, however, state the percentage of the people that use the other resources for heating like wood and electronic heaters which would
make the claim weaker. The majority of them maybe just two to three percent of above average use of all the other materials. He doesn't provide
adequate evidence to support his claim statistically.
Secondly, it's been mentioned that the region had experienced below-normal temperatures in 90 days of last heating season. He neglected
to considering the fact that this might have been an effect of a sudden storm which might have caused the temperatures to drop by a few degrees.
This is also rather confusing as to whether the climate forcasters predictions could be true because of the variability of the degrees might
have been observed continuosly, which would support the above theory of the consequence of a storm , or they might have occured on random days of the season.
Thirdly, they also believe that the number of houses being built in the region is increasing as a result of rising population. But this is only
supporting the claim if the houses being built are by the people not only moving into this region but also by the citizens already in the region
on account of their houses being damaged or just because of the real estate becoming cheaper. The population that increased in the region might be
a result of the real estate of this region being cheaper than the remaining states.
Lastly, the author's stand of the increase of the population reflects the increase in the demand of heating oil is a bold claim as it solely depends
on the kind of people that moved into the region. They could be from far colder regions of the world which would make the regions colder temperatures
a new normal for them. This also supports the fact that the kind of houses being built by the people might have higher insulation built-in so
as to reduce their costs of buying heating supplies like oil. This is a thready claim at best.
To summarize, the stand of the author of the increase in demand of heating oil during the next five years is confusing and lacks thereof the statistical
evidence needed for me to believe this to be true. He needs to further research into the statistical details of the region, in the areas of real estate,
nationality of the people that moved in, among other things to convince me in his claim.
| Post date | Users | Rates | Link to Content |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-09 | shekhar | 64 | view |
| 2022-10-01 | raghavchauhan619 | 66 | view |
| 2022-08-11 | avidwriter1771 | 68 | view |
| 2022-08-10 | nihalashah | 59 | view |
| 2022-08-01 | limbutimbu | 67 | view |
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Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 20 15
No. of Words: 535 350
No. of Characters: 2497 1500
No. of Different Words: 223 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.809 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.667 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.506 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 175 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 109 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 64 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 43 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 26.75 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 12.304 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.5 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.331 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.622 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.161 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 7 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 3, column 151, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...dicament to the weather pattern would be dropping. But the claim made by the auth...
^^^
Line 8, column 129, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: doesn't
...rage use of all the other materials. He doesnt provide adequate evidence to support ...
^^^^^^
Line 8, column 143, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...l the other materials. He doesnt provide adequate evidence to support his claim s...
^^^
Line 13, column 31, Rule ID: WHETHER[6]
Message: Can you shorten this phrase to just 'whether', or rephrase the sentence to avoid "as to"?
Suggestion: whether
...degrees. This is also rather confusing as to whether the climate forcasters predictions coul...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 14, column 99, Rule ID: COMMA_PARENTHESIS_WHITESPACE
Message: Put a space after the comma, but not before the comma
Suggestion: ,
...ove theory of the consequence of a storm , or they might have occured on random da...
^^
Line 23, column 141, Rule ID: SO_AS_TO[1]
Message: Use simply 'to'
Suggestion: to
...e might have higher insulation built-in so as to reduce their costs of buying heating su...
^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, first, firstly, however, if, lastly, may, second, secondly, so, third, thirdly, as to, kind of, as a result
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 24.0 19.6327345309 122% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 13.0 12.9520958084 100% => OK
Conjunction : 8.0 11.1786427146 72% => OK
Relative clauses : 19.0 13.6137724551 140% => OK
Pronoun: 40.0 28.8173652695 139% => Less pronouns wanted
Preposition: 83.0 55.5748502994 149% => OK
Nominalization: 9.0 16.3942115768 55% => More nominalizations (nouns with a suffix like: tion ment ence ance) wanted.
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2584.0 2260.96107784 114% => OK
No of words: 534.0 441.139720559 121% => OK
Chars per words: 4.83895131086 5.12650576532 94% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.80712388197 4.56307096286 105% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.56055664749 2.78398813304 92% => OK
Unique words: 234.0 204.123752495 115% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.438202247191 0.468620217663 94% => More unique words wanted or less content wanted.
syllable_count: 782.1 705.55239521 111% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.5 1.59920159681 94% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 12.0 4.96107784431 242% => Less pronouns wanted as sentence beginning.
Article: 7.0 8.76447105788 80% => OK
Subordination: 1.0 2.70958083832 37% => OK
Conjunction: 3.0 1.67365269461 179% => OK
Preposition: 7.0 4.22255489022 166% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 19.0 19.7664670659 96% => OK
Sentence length: 28.0 22.8473053892 123% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively long.
Sentence length SD: 65.9966842112 57.8364921388 114% => OK
Chars per sentence: 136.0 119.503703932 114% => OK
Words per sentence: 28.1052631579 23.324526521 120% => OK
Discourse Markers: 6.21052631579 5.70786347227 109% => OK
Paragraphs: 23.0 5.15768463074 446% => Less paragraphs wanted.
Language errors: 6.0 5.25449101796 114% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 10.0 8.20758483034 122% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 4.0 6.88822355289 58% => More negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 5.0 4.67664670659 107% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.151810932835 0.218282227539 70% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0562121764105 0.0743258471296 76% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0784141218078 0.0701772020484 112% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0509089900817 0.128457276422 40% => Maybe some paragraphs are off the topic.
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0731295283617 0.0628817314937 116% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 15.4 14.3799401198 107% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 51.52 48.3550499002 107% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 13.0 12.197005988 107% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 11.09 12.5979740519 88% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.22 8.32208582834 99% => OK
difficult_words: 108.0 98.500998004 110% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 14.5 12.3882235529 117% => OK
gunning_fog: 13.2 11.1389221557 119% => OK
text_standard: 15.0 11.9071856287 126% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Maximum six paragraphs wanted.
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.