The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, the proposed new jazz club in Monroe, the C-Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer; several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe; and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight at 7 P.M. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
The writer discusses that investing on jazz entertainment in the city of Monroe would be so beneficial that deserves getting business loan. However, the conclusion cannot be accepted as it rests on a number of assumptions each of which can be challenged in one way or another.
The first problem with this argument is that it assumes that through establishing the new club it will have the local market all to itself. However, there are many elements which can influence on absorbing the clients and it is not known whether the new club could surpass the old one and provide people with the same level of recreation facilities.
Another problem with this argument is that the writer assumes that things remain the same over the years and believe jazz to be very popular in this city just because of a huge crowd attended in Monroe’s annual jaz festival last year. However, there is not a viable evidence to definitely prove the popularity of jazz in this city and maybe in the current year people do not welcome the festival as much as they do in last year. Moreover, there is not any statistics about the population of the city and whether 100000 attendances were a big proportion of the society or small .
A third problem with this argument is that the writer assumes that if jazz programs in radio are rated high, then people will also welcome jazz clubs to a high extent. However, maybe people are fond of radio programs and they do not have enough time to bear traffic jams to go to the clubs.
As the final analysis, it should be said that the writer’s conclusion is not taken to be accepted. The conclusion depends on a number of assumptions which are dubious. The conclusion can be accepted if the weaknesses which are already referred to be removed.
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argument 1 -- OK
argument 2 -- OK
argument 3 -- OK
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flaws:
More arguments wanted:
several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe;
Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment.
Attribute Value Ideal
Score: 3.0 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 12 15
No. of Words: 311 350
No. of Characters: 1425 1500
No. of Different Words: 150 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.199 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.582 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.457 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 95 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 74 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 43 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 23 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 25.917 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 8.827 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.75 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.37 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.683 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.071 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5