The following appeared as a recommendation by a committee planning a ten-year budget for the city of Calatrava."The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year's birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago. Thus the number of students en

The argument that as a result of low birth-rate recorded last year, number of students in public schools of Catralava city will dramatically reduce in coming years, consequently funds from education and recreational fascilities for children can be safely diverted to other areas, may seem to be logical at the first glance. The author makes a valid argument, one that could be correct if its premises were to be true. However, his conclusion is based on assumptions for which there is no supporting evidence and makes use of terms that lack definition.

First, the author has assumed that a lower birth-rate recorded last year will surely lead to a dramatic decrease in the number of students enrolled in public schools in the coming few years. Here, the author has failed to account for other contributing factors. For example, there may be a possibility of some big industry being set-up in Catralava in the coming decade which may lead to an upsurge in the city's population. Such a move may result in a dramatic increase in number of public school enrollments. If the author were to provide reasonable evidence that there is no possibility of a dramatic increase in population in Catralava in the coming decade, it would strengthen his argument.

Second, the author has assumed that all the students enrolled in the public schools of Catralava have come from families residing in the city. Suppose, a significant percent of students enrolled in public schools of Catralava may have come from nearby towns or suburbs where the educational fascilities may be inferior to that of Catralava. Alternatively, the public schools of Catralava may offer good boarding-school fascilities and may attract students even from far-away. If the author had given some evidence showing that a majority of students enrolled in the local public schools are natives of Catralava, it would strengthen his position.

Lastly, the author has assumed that the adult population does not make use of playing fields and other recreational fascilities from which he proposes to reduce funds. He has also not clearly defined the city facilities and programs used primarily by adults to which he intends to divert the funds. For example, a large percent of adult population may be fitness or sports enthusiasts and may be regularly using the playing fields. The author needs to clearly define the recreational fascilities from which he intends to divert funds as well as those fascilities where he intends to enhance funding. He also needs to provide specific evidence suggesting that the adult population does not make significant use of athletic playing fields.

In conclusion, the author may not be entirely wrong in suggesting that it will be safe to divert funds from schools and children's recreational fascilities to programs used primarily by adults, in the coming decade. But to support the current conclusion, he needs to properly define the scope of problem and provide more conclusive evidence showing that it is indeed safe to divert funds from education into programs and fascilities for adults.