TPO-04 - Independent Writing TaskDo you agree or disagree with the following statement?In twenty years there will be fewer cars in use than there are today. Use specific reasons and examples to support your answer.

Predicting future is a difficult task because there are many possible vectors of development; however, I am prone to aver that number of cars will differ from country to country. To illustrate my idea below we will take a look at the European Union, the United States of America and such developing countries as China and India.

Firstly, there are some reasons to claim that the number of private cars in the EU will decrease significantly because of policies which were recently employed by the government of the EU. For instance, the policies assume a serious tax rise for having a personal car, the movement of cars are restricted in the majority of European cities and towns or even completely forbidden. Moreover, governments of the EU’s countries have promoted alternatives such as efficient, comfortable, cheap public transport and cycling. If the existing policies remain in place, the number of cars will have reduced dramatically within next twenty years.

Secondly, we may take a closer look at the USA. There are some signs which suggest an increase in a number of automobiles. In fact, having a car is a national tradition which is associated with the idea of freedom and American spirit, additionally to it, there is no obvious substitution for cars, for example, from my own experience I know that usage of public transport in LA is a hideous idea because it is badly designed and inefficient. When I used a friend’s car, it took about 16 minutes to drive to my workplace; however, if I choose to a bus, the journey would long for two and a half hours. Of course, there is a grave trouble with fuel emissions and other ecological problems which are connected with usage of private cars which are consuming fossil fuels, those troubles might lead to a decline in the number of cars but American carmakers such as Chrysler and FORD have invested a large amount of money in developing of cheap, reliable and ecologically friendly cars. Therefore, there is a high likelihood of sticking to the old tendency.

Finally, a quantity of automobiles used in such countries as China, India will definitely increase because any developing economy has a profound need in a cheap and reliable mean of transportation, for instance, after the China economic miracle in the 1990s the number of cars in China has skyrocketed. Now each citizen of the state wants to have a car, China's government uses this public's desire and has opened several companies which will satisfy the need. This step will ensure the stable work of country’s economy. Additionally to it, usage of autos may give governments a steady flow of tax money from drivers as well.

To wrap up, although predicting future is an arduous task, I tend to see that a correct answer may be found in today's situation. Thus, actions taken by the EU will lead to the decrease of the car used, by contrast, the steps made by the USA and developing states will cause a new surge in the number of automobiles.