The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe."Jazz music is extremely popular in the city of Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer,

The originator of the application for a small-business loan asserts that opening a new jazz music club in Monroe will be enormously lucrative. This statement is buttressed by several evidences which are connected with the conclusion by assumptions. In order to gauge the soundness of the author’s conclusion these beliefs should be carefully scrutinized.

The first evidence which is given to us is that more than 100,000 visited a local jazz festival last year. We know that the performance has a regular base and it is organized annually. However, does the success of the festival mean that jazz is highly popular in the area? Perhaps, majority of spectators of the event live in different states and parts of the country and they travel to the event. In this case, the popularity of the performance cannot be used to bolster the conclusion.

Additionally to it, the application states that the highest-rated radio program in the city is "Jazz Nightly". Despite the fact that this piece of information sounds convincingly, does it means that jazz is highly popular? People may listen to the jazz program only because other radio stations have less attractive content, for instance, news or talks. The highest rated program does not unavoidably mean that its listeners love jazz music even if they listen to the program. Consequently, the popularity of jazz in Monroe is doubtful.

Furthermore, the nearest jazz club is situated in over an hour away. From writer's point of view, this situation means that opening a new jazz club in the city will be tremendously profitable; however, how many local residents visit this club? Why has no club opened in the town, yet? Probably, the demand for jazz performances is not big enough to motivate someone to start up a business which will be connected with the jazz. Thus, the fact that no clubs is built in the area may indeed undermine author's argumentation.

Besides, we were told that a nationwide survey manifests that an average jazz fan spends about $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. However, such a survey gives only averaged data about population; therefore, in a neighboring area a jazz zealot may spend in average $1900 per year but a jazz fan in Monroe may use up to $100 on jazz related entertainment. Due to the fact that a nationwide survey gives an averaged representation of the population, it will state that $1000 is spent in average. Thus, we cannot blindly extrapolate the result of the nationwide survey on Monroe. The writer's belief that an average jazz fan of Monroe will spend about $1000 on jazz connected entertainment is not backed up properly and therefore, the success of the enterprise is doubtful.

In conclusion, the author of the application maintains that starting up a jazz club in the town will be highly profitable, however, one has failed to buttress the claim properly and aftermaths of the implementation of the policy are unclear.