"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The author of the letter asseverates that Consolidated Industries should invest more in the retail sale of home heating oil because of the recent population growth in the northeastern United States, where winters can be extremely cold, and because of the traditional way of heating houses via oil. However, such arguments are rife with holes and unwarranted assumptions and some far-reaching implications might manifest themselves if the assumptions are proven unwarranted.
First and foremost, the author assumes that the weather forecast foreshadows that the inclement weather, the below-normal temperature, will likely continue for the ensuing years, and the demand for heating oil would therefore likely increase in response to the more people needing the heating oil for heating their homes. However, this part of the stated assumption can be readily repudiated or proven wrong since the weather forecast is based on the last heating season. The one-time happening of extremely cold temperatures does not necessarily augur the same for the future patterns, since weather patterns are contingent upon a host of mercurial variables. Therefore, one of the implications of this assumption being proven unwarranted is that the demand for heating oil might not witness the predicted soaring; instead, how such demand will change will be unpredictable, if more data or more factors to ascertain the future weather patterns are left undiscussed.
Another stated assumption that needs to be appraised more properly and thoroughly is that although many new homes are being constructed in the region where winters are traditionally cold, we cannot be certain what kind of heating systems that these newly-built houses will be using. As stated in the beginning of the prompt, most homes in the northeastern Untied States have been exploiting oil as their major fuel for heating. However, one factor that the author fails to consider is that these houses have been old and dilapidated, a condition that forces the occupants to use nothing other than heating oil as their major fuel. The author further assumes, albeit ungrounded, that the new abodes will be using the same heating method. However, perhaps the new houses can be built with more modern way of heating, thanks to the aid of modern architecture. Therefore, this implies that these new houses will not be using the heating oil and the recommended investment in the retail sale of home heating oil might founder, accordingly.
Another respect where the unstated assumption seems contentious is the duration of the expected days where the winter temperatures are extremely low. Specifically, on the basis of what had happened last heating season, the below-normal temperatures lasted about roughly three months, ninety days. This seems to denote that there are about nine months during which the region does not experience extremity inclement weather and that people inhabiting the region would not need as much fuel as the reading adumbrates. Further, the author does not elucidate the correlation between the preferred heating source and the recent population growth. Were the recent growing populations composed of busy office workers who rarely have time to add fuels to heat their homes, they might opt for more efficient way of heating, such as electric heating. Therefore, the author should consider the nature of the recent population growth, specifically probing into what their preferred ways of heating sources, before he outright asserts that the booming populations relish the same heating means, since these will be the target group of the customers that the recommendation zeroes in on.
All told, notwithstanding the appeal of arguing in favor of increasing the retail sale of home heating oil due to the expected low temperatures plaguing the northeastern United States and the increasing number of new houses being built, the validity of the arguments made by the author is flimsy because the assumptions the argument depends on are shaky. He could further cement his argument by delving further into the climate prediction, the logistics and design of new houses, and the needs and wants of the growing populations in terms of their predilection for heating sources.
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Comments
Essay evaluation report
argument 1 -- not OK. correct way: maybe there are more days for above-normal temperatures.
argument 2 -- OK
argument 3 -- not OK. Need to argue against the conclusion always. For this topic it is:
Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.
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Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 2.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 20 15
No. of Words: 670 350
No. of Characters: 3507 1500
No. of Different Words: 284 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 5.088 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.234 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.723 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 277 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 192 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 118 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 91 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 33.5 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 12.213 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.5 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.354 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.555 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.128 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 6, column 721, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...mposed of busy office workers who rarely have time to add fuels to heat their hom...
^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
accordingly, first, however, if, so, therefore, kind of, such as
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 31.0 19.6327345309 158% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 21.0 12.9520958084 162% => OK
Conjunction : 16.0 11.1786427146 143% => OK
Relative clauses : 22.0 13.6137724551 162% => OK
Pronoun: 36.0 28.8173652695 125% => Less pronouns wanted
Preposition: 71.0 55.5748502994 128% => OK
Nominalization: 19.0 16.3942115768 116% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 3578.0 2260.96107784 158% => OK
No of words: 670.0 441.139720559 152% => Less content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.34029850746 5.12650576532 104% => OK
Fourth root words length: 5.08766726615 4.56307096286 111% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.79382254621 2.78398813304 100% => OK
Unique words: 303.0 204.123752495 148% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.45223880597 0.468620217663 97% => OK
syllable_count: 1094.4 705.55239521 155% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 7.0 4.96107784431 141% => OK
Article: 11.0 8.76447105788 126% => OK
Subordination: 5.0 2.70958083832 185% => OK
Conjunction: 3.0 1.67365269461 179% => OK
Preposition: 4.0 4.22255489022 95% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 20.0 19.7664670659 101% => OK
Sentence length: 33.0 22.8473053892 144% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively long.
Sentence length SD: 76.0459565 57.8364921388 131% => OK
Chars per sentence: 178.9 119.503703932 150% => OK
Words per sentence: 33.5 23.324526521 144% => OK
Discourse Markers: 3.2 5.70786347227 56% => More transition words/phrases wanted.
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 1.0 5.25449101796 19% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 7.0 8.20758483034 85% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 9.0 6.88822355289 131% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 4.0 4.67664670659 86% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.297771211969 0.218282227539 136% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0960900139333 0.0743258471296 129% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0615747592986 0.0701772020484 88% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.167003755921 0.128457276422 130% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0421127717114 0.0628817314937 67% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 20.5 14.3799401198 143% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 37.98 48.3550499002 79% => OK
smog_index: 11.2 7.1628742515 156% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 16.2 12.197005988 133% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 14.28 12.5979740519 113% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 9.07 8.32208582834 109% => OK
difficult_words: 161.0 98.500998004 163% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 20.5 12.3882235529 165% => OK
gunning_fog: 15.2 11.1389221557 136% => OK
text_standard: 21.0 11.9071856287 176% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Write the essay in 30 minutes.
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.