38 The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing."Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high quality wool fabric, we discontinued produc

In this memo, the new vice president asserts that their company would have an increasing profit for the reason that they have a new fabric supplier now. Although the argument seems plausible at the first glance, a close scrutiny reveals its untenability.

At the first place, the customer demand of the coat may not be pent-up. Even though the company and its major competitor have not offered alpaca overcoats for five years, it does not represent that the demand of alpaca overcoats cannot be satisfied by other smaller companies. The customers can also buy alpaca overcoats from these companies. Moreover, the taste of customers and fashion trend may have changed dramatically during these five years. Base on the information given in the memo, we cannot guarantee whether the alpaca overcoats would be as popular as five years ago, thus it is unpredictable whether there would be pent-up customer demand without more statistics.

Secondly, the author mistakenly equals higher price of most clothes to higher profits the company would have. On the one hand, whether the customers would be willing to purchase more expansive alpaca overcoats is uncertain. On the other hand, higher price of most types of clothing may be caused by various reasons, such as inflation, higher cost or higher tax rate, which may not ensure more profits. Suppose that the profit of an alpaca overcoat is higher than five years ago, relative higher price might make the overcoat less competitive and attract less customers. Thus, whether the total profits would be higher is unknown.

Thirdly, the author does not provide specific information about the competitors. Although the major competitor has not made any alpaca overcoat since five years ago, it may produce more advanced overcoats, which are also competitive to alpaca overcoats. Or perhaps this company also prepared to sell alpaca overcoats recently. Even if this company is not major competitors of Sartorian, there would be more competitors who produce alpaca overcoats.

In conclusion, the author fails to conclude that the company would make profits again by selling alpaca overcoats. To make the argument more persuasive, the author should provide more information about the the proclivity of customers. Additional information about potential competitors of Sartorian is also appreciated.