The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the
delivery of heating oil.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally
used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with
below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue
for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to
recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will
experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide
whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain
how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
Taking into consideration the following that appeared in the memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil it can be considerably seen that there are many undiscussed and questionable factors in the memo that should be considered and to be taken care of. Mentioning the below unclear points in the paragraph they are as followed.
Firstly, it has been mentioned in the first line that most of the homes in the northern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as a major fuel for heating. The first flaw is there is no specific number of homews mentioned, it has just mentioned most of the homes. So that point fails to make a valid point in the argument. It also mentions that they use oil as their major fuel for heating so as oil might be a major fuel but other items may also be usedas an alternative for heating up.
Secondly, it states about the last heating season about the region that experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Depending on the climate change and relying on the weather forecasters have never been proved beneficial as it is just a prediction which could not also follow as per predicted. It clearly weakens the argument showing dependence just on the basis of further several years prediction, as it is not just reliable factor.
Thirdly, it shares the idea about many new homes being built due to the recent population growth in the region. Relying just on the new homes and houses being built and the population growth dependingon the upcoming years it can’t be said that the population should also remain in that region only in the near future. It might also happen that people could change their region, may have moved to a different house or anything related to migration is also possible. That would also not agree with the argument being stated.
Following on all these facts, there are many unanswered questions and just dependence has been shown depending upon the factors that have not been justified as they as just a matter of various predictions only. So the increasing demand for heating oil in the next five years, remain as an unsolved mystery. It is purely unreasonable and also people would shift to another material or any other items for producing heat. Only the demand for heating oil will be increased cannot be justified or be relied upon.
Lastly, considering all the above points we can sum up to that the following appeared in the memo were just a prediction and was no mentioned or proved study or hypothesis. All of the mentioned points in the memo were just predicted factors and fully mercurial factors. So, nothing mentioned in the memo can be depended upon. Hence increasing demand is fully questionable and not justifiable.
| Post date | Users | Rates | Link to Content |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-09 | shekhar | 64 | view |
| 2022-10-01 | raghavchauhan619 | 66 | view |
| 2022-08-11 | avidwriter1771 | 68 | view |
| 2022-08-10 | nihalashah | 59 | view |
| 2022-08-01 | limbutimbu | 67 | view |
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Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 13 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 6 2
No. of Sentences: 21 15
No. of Words: 492 350
No. of Characters: 2341 1500
No. of Different Words: 218 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.71 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.758 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.583 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 155 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 111 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 76 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 57 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 23.429 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 10.94 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.714 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.311 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.583 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.101 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 6 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 3, column 295, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...ioned, it has just mentioned most of the homes. So that point fails to make a val...
^^
Line 3, column 304, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[3]
Message: “So that” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
... has just mentioned most of the homes. So that point fails to make a valid point in th...
^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 486, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[2]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'years'' or 'year's'?
Suggestion: years'; year's
...ce just on the basis of further several years prediction, as it is not just reliable ...
^^^^^
Line 11, column 174, Rule ID: ALL_OF_THE[1]
Message: Simply use 'all the'.
Suggestion: All the
...entioned or proved study or hypothesis. All of the mentioned points in the memo were just ...
^^^^^^^^^^
Line 11, column 327, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: Hence,
...ioned in the memo can be depended upon. Hence increasing demand is fully questionable...
^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, first, firstly, hence, if, lastly, may, second, secondly, so, third, thirdly
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 31.0 19.6327345309 158% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 17.0 12.9520958084 131% => OK
Conjunction : 17.0 11.1786427146 152% => OK
Relative clauses : 17.0 13.6137724551 125% => OK
Pronoun: 35.0 28.8173652695 121% => Less pronouns wanted
Preposition: 54.0 55.5748502994 97% => OK
Nominalization: 13.0 16.3942115768 79% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2397.0 2260.96107784 106% => OK
No of words: 492.0 441.139720559 112% => OK
Chars per words: 4.87195121951 5.12650576532 95% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.70967865282 4.56307096286 103% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.63278077999 2.78398813304 95% => OK
Unique words: 226.0 204.123752495 111% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.459349593496 0.468620217663 98% => OK
syllable_count: 748.8 705.55239521 106% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.5 1.59920159681 94% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 9.0 4.96107784431 181% => OK
Article: 1.0 8.76447105788 11% => OK
Subordination: 2.0 2.70958083832 74% => OK
Conjunction: 0.0 1.67365269461 0% => OK
Preposition: 1.0 4.22255489022 24% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 21.0 19.7664670659 106% => OK
Sentence length: 23.0 22.8473053892 101% => OK
Sentence length SD: 64.1646479053 57.8364921388 111% => OK
Chars per sentence: 114.142857143 119.503703932 96% => OK
Words per sentence: 23.4285714286 23.324526521 100% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.14285714286 5.70786347227 73% => OK
Paragraphs: 6.0 5.15768463074 116% => OK
Language errors: 5.0 5.25449101796 95% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 4.0 8.20758483034 49% => More positive sentences wanted.
Sentences with negative sentiment : 11.0 6.88822355289 160% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 6.0 4.67664670659 128% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.273767893415 0.218282227539 125% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0729272039892 0.0743258471296 98% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.102297849368 0.0701772020484 146% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.140007784975 0.128457276422 109% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.11397943724 0.0628817314937 181% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 13.2 14.3799401198 92% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 56.59 48.3550499002 117% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.1 12.197005988 91% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 11.26 12.5979740519 89% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.15 8.32208582834 98% => OK
difficult_words: 105.0 98.500998004 107% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 20.0 12.3882235529 161% => OK
gunning_fog: 11.2 11.1389221557 101% => OK
text_standard: 12.0 11.9071856287 101% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 58.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.5 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.