The following appeared as a recommendation by a committee planning a ten-year budget for the city of Calatrava.
"The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year's birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago. Thus the number of students enrolled in our public schools will soon decrease dramatically, and we can safely reduce the funds budgeted for education during the next decade. At the same time, we can reduce funding for athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities. As a result, we will have sufficient money to fund city facilities and programs used primarily by adults, since we can expect the adult population of the city to increase."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
In the recommendation provided for the efficient planning of a ten-year budget for the city of Calatrava, it is stated that the committee will have a sufficient amount of money to fund the city facilities and programs used primarily by adults. The author’s inference is based on the assumption that it is expected that there will be an increase in adult population of the city. While it’s easy to understand why the author might have predicted the calculations of funding due to various impetuses provided, the argument is still rife with holes and assumptions and thus is not strong enough to lead to infer that there will sufficient amount of funds available for investment in adult facilities.
First of all, Citing the analysis of last year’s birthrate in comparison with that of the previous five years, the author reports a dramatic decrease in the number of enrollments in public schools. It is not clear, however, the validity of this analysis. It is not necessarily substantial that the decline in birthrate is an effective cause of lesser enrollment in public schools. The enrollment of children in public schools in particular, can have various factors contributing to it. For example, parents might enroll their children comparatively more in private schools than in public schools for various significant reasons like some parents might find private schools more suitable for their children, or public schools in the area might not be effectively maintained by the government. If either of these scenarios have merit, then the original argument is significantly weakened.
Additionally, even if we do consider the fallacy that the birthrate has significantly declined, it does not strengthen the convention that the adult population rate of the city will sky-rocket as expected by the committee. It is not necessary that there should be a correlation between the deduction in birthrates and the increase in adult population. Thus, the argument does not hold water if this correlation is taken into consideration.
Building upon the implication that the committee can safely reduce the funds budgeted for education fields based on the expectation that the birthrate will consistently decline in the next decade too, the convention stands ambiguous. Perhaps the birthrate might be predicted inaccurately based on the previous five years’ outdated studies. This effectively makes the argument weak.
In conclusion, the argument, as it stands now, is considerably flawed due to its reliance on several unwarranted assumptions. If the author is able to offer more evidence then it’s possible to fully evaluate the viability of proposed recommendation.
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Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 7 2
No. of Sentences: 17 15
No. of Words: 421 350
No. of Characters: 2200 1500
No. of Different Words: 203 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.53 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.226 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.976 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 164 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 135 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 108 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 70 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 24.765 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 12.836 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.588 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.308 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.562 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.098 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 1, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
In the recommendation provided for the e...
^^^^^^^^
Line 9, column 128, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[1]
Message: “If” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
...nce on several unwarranted assumptions. If the author is able to offer more eviden...
^^
Line 9, column 173, Rule ID: LESS_MORE_THEN[1]
Message: Did you mean 'than'?
Suggestion: than
...e author is able to offer more evidence then it’s possible to fully evaluate the via...
^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
but, first, however, if, so, still, then, thus, while, for example, in conclusion, in particular, first of all
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 17.0 19.6327345309 87% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 13.0 12.9520958084 100% => OK
Conjunction : 5.0 11.1786427146 45% => More conjunction wanted.
Relative clauses : 11.0 13.6137724551 81% => OK
Pronoun: 29.0 28.8173652695 101% => OK
Preposition: 55.0 55.5748502994 99% => OK
Nominalization: 27.0 16.3942115768 165% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2267.0 2260.96107784 100% => OK
No of words: 421.0 441.139720559 95% => OK
Chars per words: 5.38479809976 5.12650576532 105% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.52971130743 4.56307096286 99% => OK
Word Length SD: 3.0589785219 2.78398813304 110% => OK
Unique words: 210.0 204.123752495 103% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.498812351544 0.468620217663 106% => OK
syllable_count: 704.7 705.55239521 100% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.7 1.59920159681 106% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 6.0 4.96107784431 121% => OK
Article: 8.0 8.76447105788 91% => OK
Subordination: 5.0 2.70958083832 185% => OK
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 2.0 4.22255489022 47% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 17.0 19.7664670659 86% => OK
Sentence length: 24.0 22.8473053892 105% => OK
Sentence length SD: 80.3823475603 57.8364921388 139% => OK
Chars per sentence: 133.352941176 119.503703932 112% => OK
Words per sentence: 24.7647058824 23.324526521 106% => OK
Discourse Markers: 6.47058823529 5.70786347227 113% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 3.0 5.25449101796 57% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 8.0 8.20758483034 97% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 6.0 6.88822355289 87% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 3.0 4.67664670659 64% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.230508983575 0.218282227539 106% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0658697583414 0.0743258471296 89% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0824454110603 0.0701772020484 117% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.109831012625 0.128457276422 86% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0624527372432 0.0628817314937 99% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 16.3 14.3799401198 113% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 38.66 48.3550499002 80% => OK
smog_index: 11.2 7.1628742515 156% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 13.8 12.197005988 113% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 14.22 12.5979740519 113% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 9.22 8.32208582834 111% => OK
difficult_words: 117.0 98.500998004 119% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 19.0 12.3882235529 153% => OK
gunning_fog: 11.6 11.1389221557 104% => OK
text_standard: 12.0 11.9071856287 101% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 66.0 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.