The following appeared in an e-mail sent by the marketing director of the Classical Shakespeare Theatre of Bardville."Over the past ten years, there has been a 20 percent decline in the size of the average audience at Classical Shakespeare Theatre product

In order to restore the decreasing audience size of the Classical Shakespeare Theater of Bardville to its former state, the author has claimed that a 'Free Plays in the park', similar to the way a different Theater has employed - successfully - would surely help the current situation of the Theater at hand. Several unwarranted assumptions have been made - for which questions must be answered in order to asses the validity of the claim.

First of all, the author points two distinctive facts - the nearby Avon Repertory Company started a 'Free Plays in the Park' Program for one and its increasing profits on the other - for which correlation can be claimed - yet the author has not given proof of a causation factor. Should the author bring evidence of what is the causality factor between these two facts - especially since people who might go to a free show, would not got to see the same play twice - nevertheless a good play - and pay for it the second time, the claim could be strengthened. Should a survey be presented in which people are asked questions such as, would they recommend these plays to their friends and a complementary survey of people who saw the show - proving a direct link between them, the assumption that free plays would boost sales - would be strengthened.

Second, even if such a causation factor exists, that free plays do cause an increase in sales - another important factor to prove was the state in which the Avon Repertory Company plays were in previously to the "Free Plays" action took part. We are not presented with any facts of whether the sales have been declining, stable or already increasing. Perhaps a stable, unchanging amount of audience visited the theater regularly, perhaps a small sized audience. A factor of 10 percent is not presented alongside factual numbers - had the audience size been no more than 20 people - an audience of 22 people cannot be seriously taken as a viable increase in sales. On the other hand an already increasing amount of visitors could have explained an increase of 10 percent - yet no evidence is given as of what is the percentage increase due to the 'Free Plays' program. Should the author bring evidence showing a similar decrease in audience in the theater, that have increased as described, he would again ascertain the initial assumption.

Finally, given all previous evidence proven, the last question of demographics have not been answered. We are presented by a case of the Classical Shakespeare Theater - a theater for which the audience demographics age range, one can presume, is 30 and above. No information is given as of what is the age range of the old and new comers of the Avon Repertory Company. For example, should the case be that the main demographics age group for the theater are of children age - with avid parents willing to take the children to the same shows repeatedly, one can argue that little similarity exists between the cases. One the other hand, should this population demographics be the exact demographics cut as the Classical Shakespeare Theater, the author could strengthen his case. Most importantly, the author must show that the Avon Repertory Company shows are mutually exclusive to the shows presented by the original theater. Suppose the case in which both theaters present the exact same plays - one could attribute the original decrease in sales for the Classical Shakespeare Theater to the fact that the relevant crowd has already seen all the plays and thus - uninterested in current playing plays.

In sum, should the author present with several answers, showing similarity between the cases, he could prove his assumption correct.