The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The author of an article argues that the need for heating oil in Northeastern United states, where winters' are typically cold, is going to increase in coming times. In support to his argument the author has provided climate forecasters prediction about the weather pattern and increase in number of homes being built to recent population growth. furthermore, the author has related the above stated reasons for forecasting the increase in the heating oil required and has recommended investment in consolidated industries to increase the production of heating oil. Though the underlying argument certainly has merit, because of a lack of evidence, weak assumptions, vague language the author's argument is unsubstantiated and deeply flawed. some of the flaws are as follows.
Firstly, the author while stating the climate forecasters prediction that the weather pattern will continue for several more years has used this as evidence to show the demand for heating oil will increase in coming time. The author has not given any proof about the prediction statistics of the climate forecasters. For example, the prediction statistics of the group of climate forecasters is not good means that till date they have in all predicted around 200 events and the probability of the event to be true is very low.
Secondly, the author using as evidence increase in the number of homes being build to predict a increase in demand of heating oil has not stated the exact relation of this with the increase in demand.For example, the new houses being built are by the people who come to stay there when the climate is moderate and not when the climate is too cold.
Thirdly, the author has recommended to invest in the consolidated industries to increase the production of heating oil has not given any data showing that the industry's performance, market share and willingness to increase the production of heating oil. For example, if the industry is planning to cut the production of heating oil because of some internal reasons.
Although as written the author's argument is categorically unconvincing. the author could strengthen the argument were he to have added the statistical data predicting the increase in heating oil , showing the relation of increase in the number of homes being built to the increase in demand. if the author has provided the more information base on increase in demand then the argument's reasoning would have improved. However, without these changes, the argument is implausible and the reasoning faulty.
In the conclusion, the author presents a interesting but flawed argument. Had the author given the more information stated above as support to the argument. The author's argument would have been persuasive. As it stands the author's argument is too weak. Hence, I remain unconvinced.
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Comments
Essay evaluation report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.0 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 16 15
No. of Words: 455 350
No. of Characters: 2312 1500
No. of Different Words: 188 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.619 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.081 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.761 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 181 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 139 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 96 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 50 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 28.438 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 20.162 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.625 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.406 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.668 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.188 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 6 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 347, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: Furthermore
...eing built to recent population growth. furthermore, the author has related the above state...
^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 1, column 686, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...e, weak assumptions, vague language the authors argument is unsubstantiated and deeply ...
^^^^^^^
Line 1, column 741, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: Some
...t is unsubstantiated and deeply flawed. some of the flaws are as follows. First...
^^^^
Line 1, column 741, Rule ID: SOME_OF_THE[1]
Message: Simply use 'some'.
Suggestion: some
...t is unsubstantiated and deeply flawed. some of the flaws are as follows. Firstly, the...
^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 7, column 95, Rule ID: EN_A_VS_AN
Message: Use 'an' instead of 'a' if the following word starts with a vowel sound, e.g. 'an article', 'an hour'
Suggestion: an
... number of homes being build to predict a increase in demand of heating oil has n...
^
Line 7, column 201, Rule ID: SENTENCE_WHITESPACE
Message: Add a space between sentences
Suggestion: For
...ion of this with the increase in demand.For example, the new houses being built are...
^^^
Line 13, column 25, Rule ID: ADMIT_ENJOY_VB[1]
Message: This verb is used with the gerund form: 'recommended investing'.
Suggestion: recommended investing
... cold. Thirdly, the author has recommended to invest in the consolidated industries to incre...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 19, column 1, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[1]
Message: “Although” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
...cause of some internal reasons. Although as written the authors argument is cate...
^^^^^^^^
Line 19, column 25, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...easons. Although as written the authors argument is categorically unconvincing....
^^^^^^^
Line 19, column 73, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: The
...argument is categorically unconvincing. the author could strengthen the argument we...
^^^
Line 19, column 195, Rule ID: COMMA_PARENTHESIS_WHITESPACE
Message: Put a space after the comma, but not before the comma
Suggestion: ,
...a predicting the increase in heating oil , showing the relation of increase in the...
^^
Line 19, column 293, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: If
... being built to the increase in demand. if the author has provided the more inform...
^^
Line 19, column 293, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[1]
Message: “if” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
... being built to the increase in demand. if the author has provided the more inform...
^^
Line 25, column 40, Rule ID: EN_A_VS_AN
Message: Use 'an' instead of 'a' if the following word starts with a vowel sound, e.g. 'an article', 'an hour'
Suggestion: an
... In the conclusion, the author presents a interesting but flawed argument. Had th...
^
Line 25, column 162, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...d above as support to the argument. The authors argument would have been persuasive. As...
^^^^^^^
Line 25, column 207, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[1]
Message: “As” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
...rs argument would have been persuasive. As it stands the authors argument is too w...
^^
Line 25, column 224, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
... have been persuasive. As it stands the authors argument is too weak. Hence, I remain u...
^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
but, first, firstly, furthermore, hence, however, if, second, secondly, so, then, third, thirdly, while, for example
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 20.0 19.6327345309 102% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 6.0 12.9520958084 46% => OK
Conjunction : 8.0 11.1786427146 72% => OK
Relative clauses : 8.0 13.6137724551 59% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 12.0 28.8173652695 42% => OK
Preposition: 61.0 55.5748502994 110% => OK
Nominalization: 28.0 16.3942115768 171% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2381.0 2260.96107784 105% => OK
No of words: 454.0 441.139720559 103% => OK
Chars per words: 5.24449339207 5.12650576532 102% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.61598047577 4.56307096286 101% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.83045865473 2.78398813304 102% => OK
Unique words: 195.0 204.123752495 96% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.429515418502 0.468620217663 92% => More unique words wanted or less content wanted.
syllable_count: 736.2 705.55239521 104% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 1.0 4.96107784431 20% => OK
Article: 12.0 8.76447105788 137% => OK
Subordination: 6.0 2.70958083832 221% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 0.0 1.67365269461 0% => OK
Preposition: 4.0 4.22255489022 95% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 20.0 19.7664670659 101% => OK
Sentence length: 22.0 22.8473053892 96% => OK
Sentence length SD: 84.4754402179 57.8364921388 146% => OK
Chars per sentence: 119.05 119.503703932 100% => OK
Words per sentence: 22.7 23.324526521 97% => OK
Discourse Markers: 5.8 5.70786347227 102% => OK
Paragraphs: 6.0 5.15768463074 116% => OK
Language errors: 17.0 5.25449101796 324% => Less language errors wanted.
Sentences with positive sentiment : 9.0 8.20758483034 110% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 9.0 6.88822355289 131% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 2.0 4.67664670659 43% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.158673360493 0.218282227539 73% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0541686979112 0.0743258471296 73% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0696357786267 0.0701772020484 99% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0948961516087 0.128457276422 74% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0542785718342 0.0628817314937 86% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 14.6 14.3799401198 102% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 49.15 48.3550499002 102% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.9 12.197005988 98% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.41 12.5979740519 106% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.89 8.32208582834 95% => OK
difficult_words: 91.0 98.500998004 92% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 14.0 12.3882235529 113% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.8 11.1389221557 97% => OK
text_standard: 14.0 11.9071856287 118% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.