A recently issued twenty-year study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia investigated the possible therapeutic effect of consuming salicylates. Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, food-processing companies also add salicylates to foods as preservatives. The twenty-year study found a correlation between the rise in the commercial use of salicylates and a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by study participants. At the time when the study concluded, food-processing companies had just discovered that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods, and, as a result, many companies plan to do so. Based on these study results, some health experts predict that residents of Mentia will suffer even fewer headaches in the future.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
The argument presents a long-term survey devoted to studying possible effects of an aspiring relative – salicylate – on a headache. Results of the research revealed decrease in numbers of headaches. At the same time the researchers observed increase in commercial usage of the drug and implied that correlation between those 2 facts exists. Furthermore, they predict even more extensive commercial usage of the drug and expects subsequent decrease of headaches. Though care for city resident’s painless state of mind is laudable, the prediction rests on several flawed assumptions and can not be substantiated based on the provided data.
To begin with, the arguer suggests that commercially used salicylate was the reason of pain diminish. That is not necessarily true. Health of Mentia residents may have improved due to popularization of healthy lifestyle that takes place recently all over the globe: eating healthy, exercising regularly, and sleeping over 8 hours daily typically improve well-being of almost any human. Another remedy that possibly healed patients is increased amount of food that naturally contains salicylates. Finally, patients might have suffered from their migraines so badly that could take other medicines to prevent headaches. Thus, to validate the assumed correlation between increased usage of salicylate as a food preservative and decrease in headaches among patients, one should eliminate other reasons for healing; otherwise correlation cannot be sustained, and 2 facts be admitted as coincidence.
Questioning the true reason of salicylate’s effect is valid, but what is even more valid is questioning survey validity. It is not clear whether survey collected data from the same respondents for 20 years. During such a long period of time sample could have changed: some people went off the survey, some new came over. It is vital to verify that sample remained credible: either unchanged or comparable in terms of age, gender, health conditions. Another point to pay attention to methods of data collection: did people write it down by themselves or doctors did it; what kind of pain was worth noting and how the criterion was defined; did people understand criteria? Especially when people write down something on their own and for an extended period (20 years is quite a long), they tend to forget noting some things or do it later as per how they remember it, thus, significant distortions of results are possible.
Finally, researchers predict that further extension of salicylate commercial usage as a flavor additive will improve painless well-being of city residents. Such a prediction sounds indeed enticing but, unfortunately, doubtful. Even if salicylates derived from all sources – natural and both commercial – will be enough for achieving the therapeutic effect, it is unclear whether city residents will like the new flavor and prefer it over their traditional flavors.
To sum up, the prediction is based on data obtained from questionable survey, rests on unsubstantiated correlation and flawed assumption. For the reasons mentioned above, the forecast cannot be deemed persuasive.
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Comments
Essay evaluation report
argument 1 -- OK
argument 2 -- not OK. need to argue:
At the time when the study concluded, food-processing companies had just discovered that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods, and, as a result, many companies plan to do so.
argument 3 -- not OK. need to argue:
Based on these study results, some health experts predict that residents of Mentia will suffer even fewer headaches in the future.
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Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.0 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 22 15
No. of Words: 484 350
No. of Characters: 2585 1500
No. of Different Words: 272 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.69 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.341 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.877 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 207 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 159 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 122 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 79 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 22 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 10.677 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.545 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.257 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.483 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.038 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 2, column 895, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...and 2 facts be admitted as coincidence. Questioning the true reason of salicylat...
^^^
Line 3, column 233, Rule ID: PERIOD_OF_TIME[1]
Message: Use simply 'period'.
Suggestion: period
...dents for 20 years. During such a long period of time sample could have changed: some people ...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 842, Rule ID: COMP_THAN[3]
Message: Comparison requires 'than', not 'then' nor 'as'.
Suggestion: than
...orget noting some things or do it later as per how they remember it, thus, signifi...
^^
Line 4, column 433, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...s will like the new flavor and prefer it over their traditional flavors. To sum...
^^
Line 5, column 26, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...nal flavors. To sum up, the prediction is based on data obtained from questiona...
^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
but, finally, furthermore, if, may, so, thus, well, kind of, to begin with, to sum up
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 22.0 19.6327345309 112% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 11.0 12.9520958084 85% => OK
Conjunction : 16.0 11.1786427146 143% => OK
Relative clauses : 10.0 13.6137724551 73% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 25.0 28.8173652695 87% => OK
Preposition: 62.0 55.5748502994 112% => OK
Nominalization: 13.0 16.3942115768 79% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2675.0 2260.96107784 118% => OK
No of words: 488.0 441.139720559 111% => OK
Chars per words: 5.48155737705 5.12650576532 107% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.70007681154 4.56307096286 103% => OK
Word Length SD: 3.00024563963 2.78398813304 108% => OK
Unique words: 279.0 204.123752495 137% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.571721311475 0.468620217663 122% => OK
syllable_count: 832.5 705.55239521 118% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.7 1.59920159681 106% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 6.0 4.96107784431 121% => OK
Article: 5.0 8.76447105788 57% => OK
Subordination: 2.0 2.70958083832 74% => OK
Conjunction: 3.0 1.67365269461 179% => OK
Preposition: 5.0 4.22255489022 118% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 22.0 19.7664670659 111% => OK
Sentence length: 22.0 22.8473053892 96% => OK
Sentence length SD: 65.9223340927 57.8364921388 114% => OK
Chars per sentence: 121.590909091 119.503703932 102% => OK
Words per sentence: 22.1818181818 23.324526521 95% => OK
Discourse Markers: 3.86363636364 5.70786347227 68% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 5.0 5.25449101796 95% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 9.0 8.20758483034 110% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 9.0 6.88822355289 131% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 4.0 4.67664670659 86% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.127611241672 0.218282227539 58% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0340351116742 0.0743258471296 46% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0325871290164 0.0701772020484 46% => Sentences are similar to each other.
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.063659948157 0.128457276422 50% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.044702793284 0.0628817314937 71% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 15.5 14.3799401198 108% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 40.69 48.3550499002 84% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 13.1 12.197005988 107% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 14.5 12.5979740519 115% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 9.68 8.32208582834 116% => OK
difficult_words: 153.0 98.500998004 155% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 11.0 12.3882235529 89% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.8 11.1389221557 97% => OK
text_standard: 11.0 11.9071856287 92% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.